Paris (AFP)

The epidemic linked to the new coronavirus, which is disrupting the supply of companies around the world, has revived the debate on the globalization of production chains and the need to relocate factories. But is it realistic?

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was one of the first politicians to call on multinationals on Tuesday to "draw the consequences" from the epidemic, which has shut down several factories by China and complicated supply to other countries.

"The coronavirus epidemic is a game changer in globalization", a game-changing event, he assured the press during a visit to Greece, stressing "the imperative need to relocate a certain number of activities and to be more independent on a number of production chains. "

The chief economist of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Laurence Boone, for her part recalled the "very important role" of China in the world economy.

"The fact that people cannot go to work or that they work less, that we close certain factories or certain services, we mechanically reduce production," she explained on BFM Business on Tuesday.

- "Put to the test" -

Is the coronavirus a game-changer in international trade, which has been accelerating for more than thirty years, making China the largest factory in the world? The opinions of economists interviewed by AFP differ.

"This is not the first time that this question has arisen," notes Julien Marcilly, chief economist of the credit insurer Coface, recalling that the arrival at the White House of Donald Trump three years ago had already raised a debate on globalization.

The American president waged a trade war against China until the signing of an agreement at the end of last year, renegotiated numerous trade agreements with his allies, and imposed various taxes on the export of steel, d aluminum or even European wines to the United States.

These measures taken by the main world economy have not called into question the foundations of globalization, said Julien Marcilly, who doubts that the epidemic that left China in late January will have more repercussions.

"Despite the coronavirus, all the underlying reasons for globalization persist," said the economist. "There will always be huge differences in labor costs between countries and there will always be needs for the supply of raw materials."

Conversely, the economist Sébastien Jean, director of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII), is convinced that "the shock (of the cornavirus) is a very important test, because it happens with a violence, a suddenness and a scale that we had not known before. "

- An evolution that would last for years -

For Sébastien Jean, the virus "comes to reinforce questions which were already posed in connection with the geopolitical uncertainty created by the tensions of commercial policy, in particular since the election of Mr. Trump".

"The epidemic, in the context of growing geopolitical uncertainties, can only strengthen the incentives for companies to take it into account and adapt their strategy to limit their exposure to these tensions," he said.

According to him, however, the reaction will not occur immediately. "We are talking about a change in strategies that would spread over the coming years. There will be an influence on investment decisions in the future," he predicts.

In the face of supply difficulties, multinationals have sometimes used System D to supply their factories.

British automaker Jaguar Land Rover, for example, was forced to import spare parts from China.

The French group Sanofi has just announced its intention to group into a new autonomous company some of its European activities in active pharmaceutical ingredients, in the context of increasing dependence of global laboratories on Asian production.

© 2020 AFP