After Mahathir's resignation, learn about the power scenarios in Malaysia

Samer Allawi - Kuala Lumpur

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has announced that he has resigned to King Abdullah Care Deen Al Mustafa Mustafa Bellah Shah, and the Prime Minister’s Office statement did not disclose details, but the matter has become in the king’s hands, according to observers of the rapid political developments since the explosion of the ruling Alliance crisis last Friday evening.

According to Malaysian media sources, Deputy Prime Minister Aziza Ismail becomes the first woman to occupy this position in the country's history, as she is automatically considered the acting Prime Minister and is the wife of Anwar Ibrahim, a competitor of Mahathir Muhammad.

The last meeting of the leaders of the Alliance of Hope, which consists of four main parties, revealed the depth of the government crisis, which resulted from Mahathir Muhammad's refusal to set a date for the handover of power to Anwar Ibrahim, and the implementation of the agreement reached by the coalition parties on January 7, 2018, before four The most famous of her elections is the one that brought the coalition to power.

The resignation of Mahathir Muhammad means returning the matter to the king to cost anyone he deems capable of obtaining the confidence of Parliament. This includes Mahathir Muhammad himself, or assigning another person likely to be Anwar Ibrahim to form the next government.

Challenges and arrangements
Political analyst Azmi Hassan considers that the greatest challenge for those charged with forming a government is to obtain the confidence of members of Parliament, and doubts the ability of Anwar Ibrahim to do so, while he believes that Mahathir Muhammad's commitment to not handing power is based on his having the confidence of the majority of members of parliament, and the absence of a constitutional clause that compels him to resign .

Mahathir's confidence in the UMNO (Amno) announcement - which is the main opposition party currently and former ruler - and the Malaysian Islamic Party supported their support for Mahathir's continued power.

Mahathir Muhammad's remarks after the last coalition leadership meeting confirmed that party leaders authorized him to set a date for leaving power without putting any pressure on him, Anwar Ibrahim commented that he must be patient, but what leaked from the meeting showed great polarization within the ruling coalition, and was followed by a frantic race between political parties To settle or reposition its options between the two competing parties.

Three scenarios
Many political analysts in Malaysia see that the options are wide and open to deal with the current political scene, and that political leaders flock to the royal palace successively to persuade the king to own the parliamentary majority to form a government.

Through what was leaked from the palace's consultations, King Abdullah, the patron of the religion Mustafa Al-Shah, is largely inclined to political and security stability in the country, and the observers are almost unanimous on three possible paths before the king:

The first: Re-assign Mahathir Muhammad to form a new government, and in doing so, he will reconstitute the ruling coalition, so that the supporters of Anwar Ibrahim will come out from them and they are the Democratic Action Party that is dominated by people of Chinese origin, the National Trust Party, which is a party split from the Malaysian Islamic Party, and the supporters of Anwar Ibrahim from the party People's justice (Anwar itself) after defection.

The new Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and the Amno Party are included in the new alliance, and the states of Sarawak and Sabah states in the eastern part of Malaysia remain loyal to the federal government headed by Mahathir Mohamad.

Second: Assigning Anwar Ibrahim to form a new government, and this opinion was reinforced by statements attributed to the king that he prefers to deal with the crisis along the lines of a constitutional precedent in the state of Perak in 2009, when its authority refused to respond to the recommendation of the head of the state government to dissolve parliament and call for new elections.

In the event that Anwar Ibrahim is mandated to form a government, he will have 14 days to gain the confidence of Parliament, and in the event that he is unable to obtain 113 votes out of 222 members, it is the total number of seats in Parliament, then he returns the matter to the King.

The third: The prime minister or the acting prime minister asked the king to dissolve parliament and call early elections, an option that seems unlikely, although it is preferred by the opposition.

Polarization was evident at the grassroots level, as it launched massive campaigns among the Malay majority to support the formation of a new alliance that guaranteed its rights and "preserves the sanctity of Islam", the two tasks entrusted to the king by the text of the constitution, as this current sees that the current government threatens Islam in Malaysia and the rights of the majority.

On the other side, Anwar Ibrahim's supporters described resorting to changing power through "back channels" and "denying obligations and promises" as a "betrayal" of the people who expressed the will to change in the elections and "immoral behavior", which was expressed by many such as Member of Parliament Chen Abdullah and the Islamic Youth Movement of Malaysia (Abim).