- Three polls on municipal in Lille have been released since last December.
- The top three candidates remain the same, PS, EELV and LREM.
- However, according to studies, trends are changing radically.
The war of numbers will take place. Who says election, says polls. Thursday and Friday, two studies on municipal voting intentions in Lille fell. Their results are a bit like the counts of the police and unions during the demonstrations: radically different.
Thursday, it was the LREM candidate, Violette Spillebout, who drew the survey ordered from the Elabe institute. The study was carried out in early February on a sample of 1,112 people using the quota method. For the interpretation of the results, the sample was reduced to 804 people, the balance not being entered on the electoral lists. The order of the candidates on the podium does not change compared to the December survey of our colleagues from La Voix du Nord : Aubry at the top, followed by EELV and the LREM list in third position.
An identical trio but reversed trends
However, the figures presented by Violette Spillebout are otherwise interesting. Credited with 28% of the voting intentions in the 1st round (against 30% in December), Martine Aubry would lose ground while the candidate LREM would grab points, going from 15% to 17%. But, still according to this survey, it is the ecologist Stéphane who would make a meteoric rise, passing from 18% to 25.5%.
But that was Thursday. This Friday, an IFOP-Fiducial poll for La Voix du Nord , CNews and Sud Radio gives a completely different story. It was also carried out in early February using the quota method, but on a smaller sample of 602 people registered on the electoral lists. Again, the top three do not change, but the trends are reversed. The outgoing mayor is making strong progress, reaching 35% of voting intentions. Always second, EELV also progresses, but to a lesser extent to 21%. Violette Spillebout on the other hand loses a point to find herself at 14%.
The only thing that is confirmed is the order of arrival for the second round. However, nothing is done. Less than three weeks before the first round, candidates can still scrape votes. It is not impossible either that the great debate between the heads of lists, organized next Tuesday, changes the situation. And then there will also be the game of alliances between the two towers.
Environmentalists hold the key to the ballot
If history has seen environmentalists rally to Martine Aubry during the previous municipal elections, the rule is not set in stone, however. For the moment, Stéphane Baly and the outgoing mayor preach for their parish. This is not the case for the others. Marc-Philippe Daubresse (LR) has joined forces with the centrist Thierry Pauchet. Violette Spillebout does not rule out an alliance with the former minister of François Fillon despite the presence on his list of his ex-rival in the LREM nomination, Valérie Petit. The former chief of staff of Martine Aubry also does not hesitate to set foot at EELV, even if the figures do not put it in a position of strength.
Our municipal file
By taking the thing in all directions, only one conclusion is imperative: during the negotiations between the two towers, it is the environmentalists who will decide who will settle for six years in the belfry of Lille.
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- Elections
- Lille
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- Martine Aubry