Paris (AFP)

The epidemic linked to the new coronavirus could lead to a total shortfall of nearly 30 billion dollars for the airlines in 2020, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata), which fears the "first world drop" in reservations since 2008-2009.

Measures of quarantine, cancellations of services, fall of tourism in China and the world ... 2020 "will be a very difficult year for the airlines", warned Thursday the director general of Iata, Alexandre de Juniac.

According to the association, which brings together 290 airlines, the net drop in the number of passengers compared to 2019 could be 8.2% in the Asia-Pacific region this year. What cause "a shortfall of $ 27.8 billion" for carriers in the region, she said.

Adding up the impact of weak demand for flights by airlines operating in the rest of the world, the overall shortfall could reach $ 29.3 billion. A setback for a global air transport accustomed to strong growth and which generated 838 billion dollars in turnover in 2019.

"We are entering a complicated period for the global airline industry. Stopping the spread of the virus is the top priority," said Alexandre de Juniac in a statement, for whom governments have an "important role to play" in this crisis. .

The international association dreads as well as the Covid-19 will not cause a drop in the number of air reservations worldwide, which would be "a first" since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

This situation will undoubtedly have a "severe" financial impact on companies "particularly exposed to the Chinese market", warns Mr. de Juniac.

Iata warns, however, that the magnitude of the impact of the epidemic on the sector is difficult to anticipate at this stage, because we do not know how it will evolve, and whether or not it will be comparable to that of SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003. In addition, States will adapt their budgetary and monetary policies to mitigate this impact.

But the association also stresses that the consequences could be greater, if ever the epidemic spread further in the Asia-Pacific region: "the impact on airlines in the rest of the world would be greater".

- "difficult decisions" -

Several airlines, including Air France, British Airways, Air Canada, Lufthansa and Delta, have suspended their flights to mainland China due to the epidemic. Air France-KLM also estimated Thursday between 150 and 200 million euros the shortfall due to the suspension of its flights, scheduled until April.

According to the firm OAG Aviation Worldwide, Chinese companies have reduced the number of seats on domestic flights by 10.4 million since the start of the epidemic, compared to around 1.7 million seats for foreign carriers.

"The airlines are making difficult decisions to reduce their capacities and, in some cases, lines. The lower fuel costs will help compensate for part of the revenue losses" but not all, warned Alexandre de Juniac.

According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a UN agency based in Montreal, the epidemic has already led to a drop in revenues of $ 4 billion to $ 5 billion for companies world airlines. The consequences of Covid-19 could therefore be "greater than those caused by the SARS epidemic in 2003".

According to Iata, the SARS epidemic had caused a shortfall of 6 billion dollars for Asian airlines. At the height of the crisis, traffic by Asia-Pacific companies - the source of this disease - had dropped by almost 50%.

For the aviation association, however, not everything is played for the aviation sector. "We do not yet know exactly how the epidemic will develop or if it will follow the same profile as SARS or not," warns Iata, for whom the drop in fuel prices could "help compensate" for the loss of income. .

© 2020 AFP