Brussels (AFP)

European heads of state and government meet in Brussels on Thursday for a summit on the EU's long-term budget, a meeting which promises to be hectic due to the deep differences between member states.

Except surprise, this first lap should not lead to an agreement, made all the more difficult by Brexit, since this 2021-2027 budget will have to do without the contribution of the United Kingdom (between 60 and 75 billion euros over 7 years), which was the second contributor after Germany.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country is going to fill the bulk of the Brexit hole, predicted "very tough and complicated negotiations".

"During a first meeting, it is normal for member states to display harsh positions vis-à-vis their public opinions. Finding a compromise will be even more complicated than usual due to the increased rigidity of positions and the Brexit hole, "predicts Marta Pilati of the European policy center (EPC).

The 27 will have to agree on the level of the budget, of the order of 1,000 billion euros, which will in any case be lower than the previous MFF (multiannual financial framework of 2014-2020) and on its breakdown (agriculture, aid to the most disadvantaged regions, fight against climate change, digital ...).

Without forgetting the discounts, a practice that now benefits 5 countries - Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden -. The others, France in mind, would like to end it thanks to the departure of the United Kingdom since it is this country which inaugurated it in 1984, after the thunderous "I want my money back" (give me back my money ) by Margaret Thatcher.

On the first front, the group of "frugals" (Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) does not want the total level of the budget to exceed 1% of the gross national income (GNI) of the EU. Some associate it with Germany, whose position is a little less hard.

The Commission, whose priorities include the fight against climate change and digital technology, would like 1.114%.

As for the President of the Council, Charles Michel, who has multiplied bilateral meetings, his compromise proposal of 1.074% will be at the heart of the extraordinary summit.

"Everything is on the table. Making it last will not make things easier. It is time to decide," he warned on the eve of the summit when there is talk of a possible extension of the meeting until the week. -end.

This battle of percentages is important because 0.01 point represents more than 10 billion euros.

- "Failure of ambition" -

The second front is that of distribution, bearing in mind that around 60% of the budget is devoted to agriculture and cohesion policy (aid to the least developed regions).

These two envelopes show an overall drop of almost 100 billion euros compared to the last budget.

France is at the forefront of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), followed in particular by Spain, currently under pressure from demonstrations by farmers.

Paris demands its "revaluation", an "absolute priority". As for the countries of the east and the south united within the "friends of cohesion", they want this policy to be maintained at the same level.

"After Brexit, we decided to relaunch our common project. And at the first opportunity to materialize, we have financial resources at a discount. We are faced with a failure of collective ambition," regrets a European diplomat.

"Plan A is a 1% budget and the rebate, plan B ditto," said another diplomat from the opposite camp, that of "frugals".

In this concert of critics, Charles Michel's project brings two novelties. For the first time, a link has been established between the payment of European funds and respect for the rule of law, which Poland and Hungary are accused of violating.

In addition to the contributions, the proposal also strengthens the Union's own resources with a "tax" on non-recycled plastics and income from the carbon market.

© 2020 AFP