Good temporary news for the planet. The coronavirus has brought down CO2 emissions in China, the country having been paralyzed for almost a month by drastic containment measures and traffic restrictions put in place to stem the epidemic.
Confined residents, paralyzed airports and factory shutdown ... The measures implemented have reduced the energy consumption of the Chinese ogre and its greenhouse gas emissions. The latter fell by at least 100 million tonnes compared to last year, according to a study released Wednesday by the specialized site Carbon Brief.
A decrease of around 1% in annual emissions
Over the past two weeks (February 3-16), CO2 emissions have approached 300 million tonnes, according to a study by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) based in Finland. In 2019, during the two weeks following New Year's holidays, the country had emitted 400 million tonnes. "The reduction in the consumption of coal and oil shows a decrease of at least 25% of emissions over a comparable period", equivalent to 6% of global emissions over this period, notes the study.
Such a fall in itself represents a decline of around 1% in annual emissions from the world's second largest economy. According to CREA, the consumption of coal in thermal power plants has fallen to the lowest in four years and the production of steelworks over fourteen days is at its lowest level in five years. "Most sectors are affected, energy consumption will be cut in January and February," said Li Shuo, spokesperson for Greenpeace China, noting "the considerable impact" on the country's carbon emissions. an energy-intensive recovery plan?
Paradox: the capital Beijing was still plunged last week in a thick polluting fog, despite an almost non-existent traffic. In reality, "the furnaces of the steelworks remain on during the holidays and most thermal power plants shut down at worst only a part of their boilers," explains the study. Nationwide, the real question is now whether this reduction in CO2 emissions "will be sustainable or if it will not be canceled, or even reversed" later, wonders Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA analyst and author of the study.
The economic slowdown could certainly weaken companies financially, lead to real estate sales and housing starts - which in turn affects heavy energy-consuming industries such as the steel and cement industries. But nothing is less certain: for the energy firm BloombergNEF, emissions could precisely increase over the year if the authorities engaged, as expected, an economic recovery plan with great blows from infrastructure projects. They will demand more cement and steel ... or more coal consumed.
"The factories will maximize their production to compensate for their losses"
There is a precedent: following the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese CO2 emissions had collapsed… until Beijing spent hundreds of billions of dollars to “revive the most energy-intensive economic sectors and more polluting, erasing the initial impact, ”recalls Lauri Myllyvirta. Admittedly, heavily indebted, the country no longer has the same room for maneuver and the possible recovery plan could partly "be directed towards clean energies and sectors favorable to the environment", hopes the analyst.
Li Shuo of Greenpeace hardly believes it: the government has confirmed that it wants to meet its ambitious economic objectives set before the health crisis. "When the epidemic has subsided, it is likely that the factories will maximize their production to compensate for their losses after their prolonged closure," said Li Shuo. "Those who believe they can greet a welcome break in the climate emergency must restrain their optimism".
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