ANALYSIS: Hard pressure on Löfven - dissatisfaction in the party begins to seep forward

SVT / Novus voter barometer indicates that the public opinion is currently quite variable and that uncertainty is high among voters. All of the changes are admittedly small and within the statistical margin of error, but compared to last month when the Social Democrats increased slightly and the Swedish Democrats backed down, the situation is now the opposite. S is again losing support, while SD is again Sweden's largest party.

One explanation could be that the focus of the political debate is now back on crime, which seems to favor SD. When the party dropped voters earlier this winter, it was a period when other issues were the focus of the debate, especially the Employment Service and the issue of more money for the municipalities.

The juvenile robbery, which has dominated the media reporting lately, is also a matter that several debaters associate with integration and immigration, which coincides with the Swedish Democrats' political message. The fact that SD lands at 23.9 percent in the SVT / Novus voter barometer is therefore no surprise. Since the 2018 election, the party has increased by 520,000 new sympathizers.

For the Social Democrats, the opinion situation is becoming increasingly troublesome. The party has since lost 220,000 voters and is down to as low levels as during Håkan Juholt's time as party leader.

In February 2012, when Juholt resigned after a long period of turbulence, the party had 22.9 percent in Novus voter barometer. Today, support is almost as low, 23.2 percent, which is very low for the Social Democrats, who in the 2018 election got 28.3 percent of the vote.

Within the Social Democrats there is now an extensive debate about the causes of the electoral losses. An important factor is probably the January agreement and its compromises. Many Social Democrats believe that excessive concessions in the bourgeois direction have been made to the Center Party and the Liberals and that the party fails to profile its own policies in the new cooperation. This picture is reinforced by the fact that a large electoral flight has taken place to the Left Party.

Another factor behind the decline of the Social Democrats is the development of crime and the debate about blasts, shootings and, most recently, the robbery. This creates worry and insecurity among the electorate, while there are no clear signs that the state authorities have been able to stop the crime. The electoral flight to the Sweden Democrats can be interpreted as an expression of this.

As the largest government party, it is natural for the Social Democrats to take the biggest hit here when voters are dissatisfied with the government's actions. Here also comes the third factor in the picture, the efforts of the party leader and the prime minister. Stefan Löfven has sometimes been misled in the debate when he tried to explain and give background to the government's actions. The messages and statements have sometimes been difficult to interpret and sometimes contradictory.

Most recently, he blamed the recent robbery of youth on the alliance's tax cuts, offsets. A statement that is not entirely easy to understand when the Social Democrats accepted these tax cuts and also, as part of the January agreement, is now helping to lower taxes further. The low confidence in the Prime Minister has become a growing problem for the Social Democrats. Stefan Löfven first lands on a mediocre middle position in the Novus confidence barometer for the party leaders.

As opinion support now falls to the party, internal dissatisfaction with the party leader also begins to seep. This discontent has, among other things, been reproduced by the newspaper Aftonbladet. Voices in the country are being raised that it is time to change party leaders, despite Löfven himself saying he wants to lead the party in the next election.

Should the critical statements so far be spread to even greater support among heavier S politicians, Löfven risks getting an internal party revolt on his neck.

What still indicates that Löfven will remain is that for the Social Democrats, government power is more important than anything else. In the current parliamentary position, it would be a venture for S to try to implement a change of prime minister. A party leader's change could also start an internal political battle with serious consequences for the party. There are no obvious successors either.

The uncertain opinion situation also means that heavy social democrats believe there is plenty of time to break the negative trend and that the situation will change as the next election approaches. So of course it can be. At the same time, it is not at all easy to see what the Social Democrats and Stefan Löfven can do in the time leading up to the election, which they have so far not tried to do.