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February 16, 2020 The Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic will impact global growth in 2020; much will depend on China's ability to contain it. This was stated by the director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, from the Global Women's Forum in Dubai."For the moment - he explained - our growth forecast is 3.3%; there could be a drop between 0.1 and 0.2%. It is a particular situation and I encourage everyone not to draw hasty conclusions", he continued. "There are many uncertainties and we are talking about scenarios and not projections," he insisted stating that it is still "too early" to accurately estimate the impact of the epidemic that caused nearly 1,700 deaths.
But Georgieva nevertheless admitted the strong impact on the tourism and transport sectors. "We don't know the exact nature of this virus, we don't know how quickly China will be able to contain it and if it will spread around the world," he said.
Last week Georgieva spoke on the American CNBC television channel saying that the most likely scenario is a sharp decline in China's business, followed by a rapid recovery and a relatively limited global impact. If China manages to contain the epidemic, "there may be a small drop and then a very rapid rebound," he reiterated in Dubai, adding that China's weight in the world economy had gone up to 8% during Sars while today it is equal to 19% ".
The Monetary Fund presented its latest forecasts for the world economy on January 20, counting on a recovery of + 3.3%, against + 2.9% in 2019, thanks in particular to the truce reached on the front of the trade war between United States and China. But the IMF on that occasion also stressed that the recovery is fragile and renewed uncertainty could counteract the rebound.