In its latest forecast, the Swedish Migration Board estimates that around 23,000 people will seek asylum in Sweden during 2020. The previous forecast was 21,000.

Compared to how many who applied for asylum in Sweden in 2019, the forecast means an increase of around 1,000 people. Last year, 21,958 people applied for asylum here.

"This is a fairly marginal increase," says the Migration Board's planning manager Henrik Holmer.

He emphasizes that all forecasts are associated with uncertainties and that it is very difficult to assess developments in different parts of the world.

TT: How big is your risk of underestimating the situation in Syria?

- This is our best assessment, but that risk is relatively small, says Holmer.

The Swedish Migration Board describes the starting point for the authority's operations in 2020 as "stable".

Increased migrant movements

In the forecast, the Migration Agency points out that the recent increase in migrant movements along the eastern Mediterranean route to Greece, as well as from Latin America to Europe, will continue this year.

The number of Syrians arriving in Greece is still high and was clearly higher in the second half of 2019 compared with the corresponding period 2018 and 2017, the forecast says.

It also states that the number of migrants moving on the Balkan route has increased.

The Migration Agency points out that the situation of Syrian migrants in Turkey continues to be difficult and that the Turkish government has the ambition to have at least one million Syrians return to Syria.

At the same time, the Syrian regime's offensive against Idlib has displaced over 300,000 people from their homes since December 2019, the forecast says.

More from South America

The number of asylum seekers from South America has increased in recent years, mainly from Colombia, but also from Nicaragua, El Salvador, Peru and Venezuela. Political repression, difficult socio-economic and humanitarian conditions, a deteriorating security situation and a lack of respect for human rights are some of the reasons for the increased migration, according to the forecast.

The Migration Board expects the number of asylum seekers from the region to continue to increase.

Almost all countries in Central and South America are visa-free to Europe, which makes it possible to go to Europe and seek asylum by legal means.

The Migration Board expects the proportion of asylum cases to remain at "relatively low" levels in the future. About a quarter of settled asylum cases in the first instance are expected to result in approval by 2020.

The Swedish Migration Board estimates that about 50 per cent of those who get rejected return on their own.