The era of US presence in Iraq and Syria has come to an end. This was stated by Advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati, during a ceremony on the occasion of 40 days since the assassination of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Kassem Suleymani.
“Today, the era of US presence in Iraq and Syria has come to an end,” Velayati said.
The adviser recalled that the Mejlis (parliament) of Iraq voted for the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country, which means that Washington must leave the republic. According to him, now it is time to expel the Americans from Afghanistan.
In turn, the Secretary of the Council on the appropriateness of the decisions taken (an advisory body to the top leader of Iran) Mohsen Rezai said that Iran is in control of all the actions of the US armed forces in the Persian Gulf region, including American military bases and the navy.
He stressed that the data available to Tehran on the US military in the region are very accurate. According to him, Iran, striking at the American base Ain al-Assad located in Iraq, had all the information necessary for this.
Recall, Iran’s missile strike on US positions was a response to the assassination by Americans of General Suleymani on the territory of Iraq. Another consequence of this attack by Washington was a vote in the Iraqi parliament for the withdrawal of the US military from the territory of the republic.
However, US President Donald Trump said that he would not withdraw troops if Iraq did not pay for the American-built air base on its territory.
"They showed strength, but this is not enough."
According to experts, a short-term aggravation in the confrontation between the US and Iran allowed Tehran to demonstrate its military capabilities and outline the red lines that Washington should not cross
“Iran has shown that an open conflict with them will cost Americans a lot,” said political analyst Karine Gevorgyan in an interview with RT.
At the same time, the analyst notes, Iran does not have any aggressive plans and cares exclusively about its own security.
“In this regard, the Americans, of course, create big problems for the Iranians in the region. Let's not forget that General Suleymani, who they killed, played one of the most important roles in the victory over the IG *, ”she said.
At the same time, experts note that Tehran’s statements about the end of the American era in the region are premature. According to them, at the moment, Iran does not have the resources that would allow it to confront the United States, not to mention forcing the Americans to leave the entire Middle East or at least one single country.
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“This is certainly a verbal threat. Iran has shown strength, but this is not enough. The presence or absence of the United States in this region depends not so much on some actions by official Tehran, but on the relevant decisions in US policy, ”Vladimir Batyuk, head of the Center for Military-Political Studies of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT.
A similar position is shared by the expert on the Middle East, professor of Moscow State University Alexander Vavilov.
“Iran does not have the resources to confront the States. And the end of the era of US presence in Syria and Iraq is not yet visible, ”he said in an interview with RT.
Commenting on the decision of the Iraqi parliament, Batyuk suggested that in practice it does not mean anything.
“Much will depend not so much on the position of the Iraqis themselves, but on those decisions that official Washington will make. If the Americans decide that their presence is necessary, they will be able to impose their will on the Iraqi government, ”he said.
One of the instruments of pressure on Baghdad may be Iraqi money placed in US banks. As Trump said earlier, Iraq holds about $ 35 billion in accounts in America.
At the same time, Batyuk emphasized that the decision to remain in Iraq is “forcibly”, against the will of the democratically elected Iraqi parliament, threatening Washington with serious reputational losses.
“US threats against Baghdad are not very helpful in strengthening their international position. Under these conditions, they will no longer act as the alleged liberators of the Iraqi people from the yoke of Saddam Hussein, as they usually say about themselves, but as obvious aggressors and oppressors, ”Batyuk said.
“Everything will remain as it is”
Experts recalled that the cessation of military adventures in the Middle East, including in Syria and Iraq, was one of the election promises of US President Donald Trump. However, they ascertain, becoming the president, he could not realize it.
“The situation with the presence of Americans in the Near and Middle East is very confusing. The fact is that Washington in every possible way indicated its desire to leave there, but at the same time, its contingent continues to be there, ”Gevorgyan explains. “Moreover, now they are strengthening their positions in the oil fields on the border between Iraq and Syria.”
- Donald trump
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In addition, analysts say that the US’s hypothetical withdrawal from Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan still does not put an end to the US presence in the region, since it is not limited to these countries. To date, in one form or another, the US Armed Forces are deployed in Kuwait, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Bahrain. Today, nothing threatens the status of the US military in these countries, experts emphasize.
According to analysts, the region is of interest to Washington not only from a geopolitical point of view, but also from an economic point of view, since it has "enormous hydrocarbon reserves."
“Americans need oil. The Middle East and North Africa are also of great geostrategic importance, which means that they cannot lose their positions there, ”Vavilov believes.
In addition, Washington cannot leave the region, since it has already invested trillions of dollars in ensuring its presence in it, political scientists say. According to a study by the Watson Institute of International Studies at Brown University, from 2001 to 2020, the United States spent about $ 6.4 trillion on military campaigns - mainly in the Middle East.
“They have invested trillions of dollars in their operations in the Middle East and North Africa, so, of course, no retreat is expected,” Vavilov said.
Experts also agreed that in the upcoming US presidential election the question of the presence of the US military in the Middle East will not play a significant role. According to them, the foreign policy factor will be in the background, and the domestic agenda will dominate.
“Given the specifics of the internal situation in the United States, interest in the external contour will not be high. And all foreign policy rhetoric will take the form of declarations, not real actions, ”said Gevorgyan.
In this regard, analysts are convinced, one should not expect any radical actions by Washington in the Middle East before the presidential election.
“In the coming period there will not be any major shifts towards an escalation of tension. Trump needs to enter the presidential race in a fairly calm state. Now he has come out of impeachment, but still the internal struggle in the United States continues, so the tension in the Middle East is not favorable for him. Everything will remain as it is, ”concluded Vavilov.
* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.