The Polish Institute of International Relations (PISM) under the government of the republic prepared a newsletter on the future control of strategic arms of the EU and the USA against the background of the ambiguous position of the White House on the extension of START III (an agreement on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive arms).

“There is a growing risk of the collapse of the US-Russian strategic arms control system, which is fraught with negative consequences for NATO as well: disagreements between the members of the alliance about a future deterrence policy, and in the US Congress on the modernization of American nuclear forces,” the report says PISM publications.

The author of the newsletter, Arthur Katzshik, notes that the US withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) contributed to growing concern among Europeans.

“NATO countries have long supported this treaty, and many of them call for an extension of its validity. If the collapse of the INF Treaty follows the end of START III in 2019, Europe’s fear of a new arms race, which Russia will blame the United States, will be aggravated, ”Katzshik emphasizes.

Recall that the States on August 2, 2019 unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, accusing Russia of violating it. A few days after this, the Americans tested a missile previously prohibited by the treaty. According to Vladimir Putin, it was for this purpose that Washington organized a campaign with accusations against Moscow.

As noted in the PISM publication, Europeans fear that in the event of the collapse of yet another disarmament agreement, the United States will pay less attention to the security of European NATO members.

“The Alliance will suffer as a result of the extremely dire consequences that the paralysis of strategic arms control will result in for US nuclear policy: the difficulty of modernizing US nuclear forces due to internal disputes or the increase in the cost of their nuclear weapons due to (reduction in funding. - RT ) conventional forces necessary to protect Europe, ”the bulletin says.

Recall that START III was signed in 2010 by ex-presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, entered into force on February 5, 2011 and is designed for ten years with the possibility of extension by another five by mutual agreement. According to the document, the parties committed themselves to reduce the number of their deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 units over seven years, and their deployed carriers (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine ballistic missiles and strategic bombers) to 700.

If START III collapses, for the first time in several decades there will be no legally binding restrictions on the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, the PISM analyst emphasizes.

The EU has previously called on Moscow and Washington, which, according to the European Parliament, own more than 90% of the global nuclear arsenal, to resume dialogue on possible ways to build new relations in the field of arms control. Similar initiatives were taken by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and UN Secretary General Antoniu Guterres.

The Russian side has also repeatedly spoken about the need to extend the treaty, which Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called "the last stone remaining in the international security system."

“Nothing new has come to replace the agreements from which the United States withdrew. As a result, security has become much lower and the world has become less predictable. In our opinion, those agreements that still exist today should be preserved, ”he added.

In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in December that Moscow had sent Washington proposals regarding the extension of START III.

“So far we have not received an answer, but in the meantime we see a movement (USA. - RT ) in the opposite direction, in the direction of increasing tension in the sphere of strategic stability, in the field of nuclear weapons,” Lavrov said.

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
  • RIA News
  • © Vitaly Belousov

The "skeptical" attitude of the Trump administration

The position of the United States is mixed. On the one hand, Washington does not exclude the extension of START III; on the other, it delays this moment by insisting on signing a broader treaty, in which China would take part. Moreover, the US considers it necessary to include in the new version of the agreement all new types of Russian weapons.

“The Trump administration is skeptical about the extension of the START III treaty, which expires in 2021. She wants to sign a new agreement with Russia and China, which would cover all types of nuclear weapons. However, it is impossible to agree on such a complex deal before the outbreak of START III, ”the author of the PISM newsletter emphasizes.

The director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia Sergey Naryshkin has a similar opinion.

“The sad fate of the Treaty on intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles is highly likely to await the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty, which expires in February 2021. US actions are nothing more than undermining the international security system. Russia is taking decisive steps to save the architecture of arms control, but we cannot force Washington and its satellites to do this, ”said Naryshkin.

The termination of START III may lead to a sharp destabilization of the situation in the world, said political scientist, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University Vladimir Shapovalov.

“At present, the world is increasingly striving for multipolarity and there are many countries that will perceive the US unilateral withdrawal from the treaty as a threat to itself ... Eliminating restrictions on the proliferation of nuclear weapons will lead to the fact that a whole series of powers will set as their goal its creation. This has unpredictable consequences in terms of both global and regional security, ”Shapovalov said in an interview with RT.

Chinese factor

Against this background, the PISM bulletin notes that "the optimal scenario for NATO implies an extension of START III and US participation in parallel negotiations with Russia and China on expanding nuclear arms control."

The fact is that the US initiative did not find understanding in the PRC either - there they are not considering the possibility of participating in the new agreement.

“China is not shirking responsibility. We are ready to reduce nuclear arsenals to honest levels. If other countries reduce their arsenals to the level of China, we are ready to join the process. However, it is unrealistic to expect China to join the so-called trilateral talks, ”said Fu Tsong, director of the arms control and disarmament department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

It is worth noting that if the number of deployed nuclear warheads in Russia and the USA, according to START III, should not exceed 1550, then in China, according to various expert estimates, their total number can range from 200 to 300 units (accurate data on the volume of Chinese nuclear Arsenal unknown).

  • Director General of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China Fu Tsun
  • RIA News
  • © Grigory Sysoev

As Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, noted in an interview with RT, the PRC is working to improve its nuclear systems, but it is likely not so much to increase the quantity, but to improve the quality of carriers.

“It is clear that in the context of the aggravation of relations between China and the United States, the Chinese nuclear arsenal is becoming a matter of attention and concern,” the expert emphasized.

He recalled that Russia has traditionally supported the idea of ​​moving to a multilateral format of negotiations on nuclear weapons, but it understands the Chinese leadership’s unwillingness to engage in the strategic arms limitation process, as China’s nuclear arsenal is significantly inferior to the arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States.

“Washington probably also has no illusions about the Chinese position. I think that these insistent demands to include China are a pretext in order to abandon any arms control agreements and provide the USA with maximum freedom of hands in this strategic area, ”Kortunov added.

Vladimir Shapovalov is also convinced that Washington’s call to invite Beijing to participate in the treaty is only an excuse to refuse to extend START III.

“Here we see an absolutely far-fetched argument that does not hold water and is just an artificial justification for the desire of the United States to build up its nuclear potential and continue to play a dominant role in the world,” the expert said in an interview with RT.

A similar position is held by the director of the US Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the USA at Moscow State University, political analyst Yuri Rogulev.

“In addition to China, they have other excuses - that if the treaty is extended in the existing text, then many new types of weapons that have arisen are not indicated ... Yes, now it looks more like an excuse,” said Rogulev.