Analysis: Taking over after Sjöstedt - a political kamikaze mission

To finish at the top, is an old saying that few politicians usually want to adopt. But Jonas Sjöstedt is an exception. The party has not been so high in opinion polls since Gudrun Schyman's heyday and personal confidence in Sjöstedt now beats all records.

That 40 percent of Swedish voters have confidence in the Left Party party leader is astonishing. Rather, during the majority of the party's existence, voters' view of the Left Party was characterized by distrust and skepticism. Credibility was for a long time the party's Achilles heel and for a long period of years opinion support commuted between four and five percent.

For example, Jonas Sjöstedt's representative as party leader, Lars Ohly, had the confidence of 15 percent of voters just before he resigned, which can be compared to today's confidence barometer from Novus where Sjöstedt thus gets 40 percent.

His overthrow of the party has thus borne fruit. The ambition to broaden the Left Party to make it more credible and attractive to voters has succeeded.

But in the name of honesty, the Left Party has in the last year also received a lot of help from the January agreement, where the Social Democrats are forced to push several controversial proposals by the Center Party and the Liberals. It has damaged confidence in the Social Democrats, and paved the way for the rise of the Left Party.

Interesting in this context are also the settlements that the Left Party recently met in the Riksdag with the Moderates and Christian Democrats, settlements that have also been supported by the Swedish Democrats. This has been controversial among some left-wing parties, who say that Sjöstedt thus legitimizes and normalizes the Swedish Democrats in the Riksdag.

But the Left Party is now taking a more active role in the Riksdag, deciding the government on individual issues and cooperating with old political opponents like M and KD and at the same time giving SD increased political influence does not appear to have had any negative effects in the opinion of V, rather the opposite.

The agreement on the Employment Service, which forced the government to strike a retreat, as well as the agreement on more money for the municipalities, presumably required SD's votes, but the support within the Left Party is still compact for Jonas Sjöstedt. No other party leader has as much confidence in his own ranks as Sjöstedt, who has the confidence of 94 percent of his own voters. So Sjöstedt is currently stronger in his party than SD leader Jimmie Åkesson.

But confidence in Sjöstedt is also increasing among other party voters. For example, 22 percent of SD sympathizers today have quite or very much confidence in him. Thus, every fifth SD voter has confidence in the V-leader even though the parties usually point out each other as the main opponent!

Among M and KD sympathizers, support for Sjöstedt is almost as large, 21 percent. Among social democratic voters, support is even greater, 62 percent, which can be interpreted as the fact that the S-voters were not particularly receptive to Stefan Löfven's condemnations of Sjöstedt's actions.

In addition, Novus' confidence barometer does not offer any major surprises. Support for Prime Minister Stefan Löfven is still remarkably low, 26 percent. At the same level lies M leader Ulf Kristersson, while both KD leader Ebba Busch Thor and SD leader Jimmie Åkesson clearly have greater confidence among voters.

But when the left parties now cheer for their party leader's strong position in public opinion, they are at the same time phasing in what is to come. Jonas Sjöstedt, who is thus clearly more popular than his party, leaves the party leader post at the congress at the end of May.

Taking over after such a popular party leader can almost be likened to a political kamikaze mission.

Nooshi Dadgostar, who is expected to take over after Sjöstedt, is completely unknown to voters and will need several years to reach Sjöstedt's confidence and popularity.

This means that the party can expect to fall in public opinion after Sjöstedt's departure. Rather, the question is how deep and lasting this decline becomes.

Confidence is usually considered crucial for political communication. A politician with great confidence is easier to hear from voters for their arguments and is also more difficult to give up for the political opponents.

So finishing on top can be good for Jonas Sjöstedt, but bad for the Left Party.