“Approaches will be brought closer”: what issues will Putin and Lukashenko discuss at a meeting in Sochi

On February 7, Sochi will host a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko. According to the Kremlin’s press service, the leaders will discuss topical issues in Russian-Belarusian cooperation, including integration issues within the Union State. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that the meeting of the heads of state was preceded by "ongoing contacts at the working level."

According to Vladimir Olenchenko, a senior fellow at the Center for European Studies at IMEMO RAS, a new impetus can be given to integration processes during the negotiations.

“In the second half of last year, Moscow and Minsk successfully negotiated on how to move forward in the matter of deepening integration. Roadmaps were being prepared, they were almost agreed upon, about 20% remained on approval. But then these negotiations at the level of relevant ministries were paused. Probably, now at this meeting, the leaders of the states will advocate to remove this pause and reach an agreement on how the union agreement will develop in the future, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

Alexander Lukashenko, announcing the upcoming meeting, called it a “moment of truth" for relations between the two countries. According to the teacher of the Presidential Academy of the RANEPA, Sergei Margulis, the Belarusian leader thus emphasized the great importance that Minsk attaches to the negotiations in Sochi.

“Lukashenko wants to increase the significance of this meeting, to show that everything should be decided on it regarding the future fate of integration within the Union State,” the analyst said in an interview with RT.

• RIA News
• © Sergey Guneev

Union building

According to political scientists, deepening the integration of Russia and Belarus in the framework of the construction of the Union State will occupy a central place in the negotiations.

The agreement on the creation of the union of Russia and Belarus was concluded in 1999. The document provides for the gradual unification of legislation and the formation of unified authorities. However, at the end of 2019, the parties stated that over the past 20 years since the signing of the agreement, many of the provisions indicated in it have not been implemented.

“There are certain achievements, especially in the social sphere, but the decisions that were made at the time regarding the construction of the Union State, overwhelmingly, the fundamental decisions - they are not implemented. It’s just that 90% has not been done there on each of the issues, ”Vladimir Putin said in December 2019.

For this reason, the Russian leader noted, he and Alexander Lukashenko decided to accelerate integration processes. In December 2019, the leaders held two meetings at which they discussed the problems of creating a Union State.

The fact that integration issues will occupy a central place in the negotiations was also announced by the Russian ambassador in Minsk, Dmitry Mezentsev.

“Paying attention to solving operational issues, primarily those on the energy agenda, we need to see the prospects for union construction, the significance of the great integration work of governments in the past year, to see a new practice that has not existed before — coordination of road maps,” Mezentseva quotes Interfax .

According to Petr Petrovsky, an employee of the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, even a hypothetical refusal to build a Union State would harm both countries, so neither the Russian Federation nor Belarus would do so.

“The leaders of the countries will find a compromise solution because Putin and Lukashenko realize the value of partnership,” Petrovsky said.

Energy issues

According to political scientists, another topic that will most likely be discussed at the talks is energy. Unresolved issues have accumulated between the two countries in this area.

So, at the end of last year, Moscow and Minsk could not reach an agreement on oil tariffs, which is why from January 1, 2020, Russia was forced to suspend the supply of this raw material to Belarus. On January 4, one-time contracts for the supply of raw materials to Belarusian refineries were resumed.

In response, Alexander Lukashenko said that Minsk intends to look for alternative suppliers in order to reduce the share of oil purchases from Russia to 30-40% of total imports. Belarus sent relevant commercial offers to Ukraine, Poland, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, as well as the Baltic countries.

According to experts, in this way Lukashenko is trying to achieve more favorable energy prices for his country, however, Belarus is not going to refuse to supply from Russia, since Russian tariffs are much lower than global ones.

“The statement of Belarus regarding the purchase of alternative oil is an element of bargaining, because any alternative options will cost the Belarusian side much more, respectively, Minsk will not be able to make money on this. Do not forget that almost a quarter of Belarus’s foreign trade is trade in Russian oil, ”said Sergey Margulis.

Amid disagreements over oil supplies, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Belarus on February 1. The head of the State Department said that the United States was allegedly ready to fully meet the oil needs of Belarus at competitive prices.

• Mozyr Oil Refinery
• RIA News
• © Andrey Alexandrov

The arrival of an American official will not affect the negotiations between Russia and Belarus, Margulis believes.

“The visit of Pompeo is unlikely to play any significant role in this matter. This meeting does not need to be over-emphasized. The leadership of Belarus is pursuing a multi-vector policy, Lukashenko often meets with various leaders of Western states, this is a common practice, ”the analyst explained.

A similar point of view is shared by the director of the Center for Geopolitical Expertise Valery Korovin. According to him, Minsk is unlikely to rely on some kind of partnership with the United States, because it understands that Washington has its own interests, which far from always coincide with those of Belarus, especially considering its allied obligations to the Russian Federation.

“Belarus will not only not receive oil from the Americans at the prices it wants, but will receive nothing at all. Minsk understands this, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

In turn, Olenchenko noted that the differences between Moscow and Minsk in the energy sector are not insoluble.

“I would not say that this is a disagreement. These are different approaches to how to build our future relationship. I think that these approaches will be brought closer together and the movement will continue, ”the analyst noted.

“Always in dialogue”

Despite a number of disagreements in the field of energy, economic relations between Russia and Belarus are at a consistently high level, said Sergey Margulis.

“The trade and economic relations of the countries are at a fairly high level, including in the field of agriculture, the metallurgical industry,” he explained.

At the end of 2018, Belarus ranked fourth in terms of trade with Russia, bypassing such large economies as Turkey, the USA, Japan and France.

The Russian export is predominantly dominated by fuel and energy products, as well as equipment and automobiles, while the Belarusian export is dominated by food, agricultural products and machinery. At the same time, Russia accounts for almost half of the total trade turnover of Belarus.

Experts note that the problems between the countries between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko always try to solve during personal meetings. This is evidenced by the dynamism of bilateral contacts at the highest level.

“Contacts between our countries have been and are being carried out,” Olenchenko said, noting that both leaders “are always in dialogue” and strive to “reach mutually beneficial solutions.”