It is China, not America, that decides the fate of Earth on climate change

Donald Trump has become the evil side of the climate change story. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, the American president played the full role masterfully to the end, attacking climate activists calling them "messengers of woe and cowardice", while watching the teen activist, Greta Thunberg, the scene in the audience.

But if we look at the numbers - unlike what is happening in front of us - it becomes clear that the battle to control climate change now depends much more on what is going on in China than in America. According to the Federation of Scientists interested in this matter, China's share of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide now reaches 29%, compared to 16% for the United States, about 10% for the European Union, and 7% for India. Even on a per capita basis, the Chinese per capita now has more greenhouse gases than the European share, and this has been the case since 2014.

Low coal power

And as the Trump administration prefers to point out, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions actually decreased last year, albeit by only 2.1%. This is largely due to the decrease in coal power generation in the United States, which is now back to its lowest levels in 1975. By contrast, China continues to build new coal-fired power plants.

Nevertheless, the Trump administration's doubts about the climate and the denial of this happening are still important issues that may affect the world. The United States was at the forefront in establishing most of the important international institutions and agreements that shaped the current world order. If America chooses to abandon that global effort to combat climate change, others will have to provide leadership to achieve an international package.

China's addiction to coal means that it will struggle to provide global leadership in the climate. Europeans seem enthusiastic about this, but they may lack the international organization and effort to take responsibility. The debate in the European Union for a "carbon tax" - taxing mainly imports from highly polluted countries - can also lead to bitter trade disputes that make it difficult to achieve an international agreement.

Next year is lively

But a country will have to provide leadership quickly, because next year will be vital to international climate efforts. In November, the UK will host the 26th climate action summit, and it will be a particularly important meeting, because participating countries are expected to realize that the pledges they have made Under the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, not enough to achieve the goal of containing global warming. The Glasgow summit in November will ask relevant countries to commit to more ambitious and detailed targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But the 26th climate action summit will take place just six days after the US presidential election. If Trump is re-elected, this will confirm that the United States has essentially disappeared from global efforts to combat climate change. On November 4, the day following the elections, the United States is scheduled to formally withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This, in turn, will increase pressure on the European Union, China, India and the United Kingdom (as hosts), to maintain efforts to combat climate change through coordinated global action. Adam 2020, professor at Columbia University who is interested in the history of international climate policy, says that November 2020 will be "an important moment in world history."

One of the highlights of the climate debate in Davos is the way this topic is highlighted in every session - even in those sessions that were ostensibly devoted to other topics. The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, was surprisingly injured when he said that his greatest fear is environmental degradation - even more than his fear of the long-running conflict that his country is still holding: “We used to face drought every 100 years, and now it seems we will face it every five years. ». African politicians in Davos pointed out similar points about the increase in droughts in the Sahel, and the way in which the changing climate leads to conflicts over land and water, and displacement of people.

The bad news for this planet is that the continuous growth of the Chinese and Indian middle classes will increase the demand for cars, electricity, meat and travel abroad, all of which will generate more greenhouse gases. The good news is that the Chinese government has repeatedly stated that it understands that climate change and pollution pose a direct threat to China’s future, causing droughts and rising sea levels, which could threaten big cities like Shanghai.

Some commitment

Chinese President Xi Jinping has shown some commitment to environmental work through his efforts to improve air quality in big cities like Beijing, and the Chinese government has poured money and expertise into developing renewable energy sources. In the coming months, the Chinese and Europeans will try to work together to develop new international goals to reduce greenhouse gases. If they succeed in doing so, the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference may give hope that the international community can unite to confront a common threat to humanity, regardless of what happens in the US elections.

Gideon Rushman: columnist for the Financial Times.

One of the highlights of the climate debate in Davos is the way in which this topic has emerged in every session. The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, was surprisingly injured when he said that his greatest fear was environmental degradation, even more than his fear of the long-running conflict in his country.

- Chinese President Xi Jinping has demonstrated some commitment to environmental work through his efforts to improve air quality in major cities such as Beijing, and the Chinese government has poured money and expertise into developing renewable energy sources.