Departure from the UK What is the “future forecast” of experts?

To the EU withdrawal from the EU Experts' "future forecast" is January 14, 6:14

The UK will leave the EU = European Union, which has been a member for 47 years, at 8:00 am Japan time. Experts have pointed out that Russia and China may increase their influence in the form of gaps, and that they have a major negative effect on EU diplomacy and security.

EU weakening Russia, China, etc. may have more influence

Countries such as Serbia and Montenegro, which are located in the southeastern part of Europe in the former Balkan region of the former communist nation, have been negotiating accession to the EU, but in recent years France has been working on further EU expansion. Negotiations have stagnated due to their cautious attitude.

Professor Florian Beaver of the Center for Southern and Eastern European Studies at the University of Graz in Austria, said in an interview with NHK: "The UK has so far strongly supported EU accession to the EU, but the UK is no longer supporting it. They will no longer be in the EU. "

Professor Beaver pointed out that the EU was weakening due to the European economic crisis, the problem of immigration and refugees from the Middle East, and the recent withdrawal of the United Kingdom. Russia, China, Turkey, etc. are more active in the form of an agreement, "said Russia, who is wary of further expansion of the EU and NATO-North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and China, which is promoting Belt and Road. It has the potential to increase its influence on the region.

"Depending on negotiations, the situation in Europe may lead to divisions"

"Withdrawal is an inconvenient event for both the UK and the EU," said Hubert Vedrine, an aide to France's President Mitterrand and also Foreign Minister under the upcoming President Chirac, on the UK's departure from the EU. If the EU had listened a bit to the EU's criticism of bureaucracy, it could have prevented the withdrawal, "he said.

He talked about negotiations for a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU starting next month. "The UK will work on negotiations to maximize profits, regardless of EU regulations. It is very complicated and laborious. There will definitely be talks, and depending on where the negotiations are, there could be a disruption in Europe. "

Then, "If the UK goes on economically and politically, other European nations will begin to think," Leaving was not a bad thing. We might be able to take the same path. " He said, if trade negotiations could result in a lot of gains for the UK, a new country seeking a way out could lead to a weakening of the EU.

Johnson Prime Minister needs to extend 'transition period'

"It is a huge loss for the EU that Britain has been a member of the EU for more than 40 years, and that it is a great power and a necessary one for security and other purposes," said Karel Lanaud of the European Policy Research Center. He pointed out that Britain's withdrawal was a huge negative for EU diplomacy and security.

On the other hand, "The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs. The UK will be bullish at first but will tone down eventually because it needs access to the EU." He pointed out that the disadvantages of withdrawal were greater in the UK.

He added, "British governments should be more flexible, because there is increasing public and business pressure to maintain the same level they once had." Pointed out that there is a possibility.

As for negotiations on future relations, "The EU will have special ties with the United Kingdom, just like Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, etc., which have mutual freedom of movement of people and goods. It would not be possible to end the negotiations in one year, and it will take at least two or three years. "The British Prime Minister Johnson rejected the need to extend the" transition period. " Was.