Offensive bargaining: will Washington heed the UN call for an extension of START III

The UN leadership urges Washington and Moscow to first extend the current START III treaty (on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive arms), and only then to discuss the possible conclusion of a new version of the agreement or its transfer to the multilateral plane. This position in an interview with RIA Novosti was indicated by UN Deputy Secretary General, High Representative for Disarmament Izumi Nakamitsu.

According to her, the first step to maintaining global strategic stability should be the extension of START III for the five-year term specified in the treaty. She called the "very dangerous" way in which the existing agreement will be destroyed first, and then the discussion of the new agreement will begin.

“Let's focus on preserving what we have. Unfortunately, this did not work with the INF Treaty. But START III is still in effect, so let's try to preserve what we have and extend it as much as possible for five years, ”Nakamitsu said.

The UN Deputy Secretary General added that in the future it would be advisable to include all states possessing this type of weapon in the nuclear arms reduction treaty.

“Recent efforts aimed at making such a treaty multilateral are a daunting task. This cannot be done overnight. Therefore, it is probably not a good idea to try to combine the solution of the extremely urgent issue of extending the treaty and the issue of the accession of China or any other states to it. We should probably share these issues, because we want the agreement to be renewed before it ceases to operate, ”Nakamitsu said.

• United Nations Under-Secretary-General, High Representative for Disarmament Izumi Nakamitsu
• globallookpress.com
• © Li Muzi

When asked whether to include Russian weapons developments of recent years, including the “Dagger”, “Burevestnik” and “Poseidon” in the new strategic offensive arms treaty, the UN Under Secretary General explained that a discussion should be held on them “at a certain stage”.

“The strategic environment has changed a lot. This was partly due to these new weapons systems, partly to conventional weapons, which have a strategic effect. So these things will need to be reviewed, analyzed, studied comprehensively ... Things that relate, for example, to the consequences of the development of science and technology: cybersphere, artificial intelligence, outer space, they are extremely important, ”said Nakamitsu.

Recall, earlier the head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, said that in the case of the extension of the START III treaty, all new types of Russian weapons should be included in it. According to the American minister, Moscow is expanding its defense potential, which should lead to a change in the terms of the strategic offensive arms treaty.

Deferral Policy

START III was signed in 2010 by the then leaders of Russia and the United States, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. The validity period of the contract is ten years with the possibility of extension for a five-year period. Under the terms of START III, each of the countries participating in the treaty pledged to reduce its nuclear forces within seven years. For deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles, submarines and heavy bombers, a total of 700 units was established (together with undeployed weapons, their number should not exceed 800 units). For the warheads deployed on different carriers, an upper bar of 1,550 units was introduced.

The agreement also states that each of the parties has the right to independently determine the composition and structure of its strategic offensive weapons. Also, subject to the terms of the contract, the parties can upgrade and replace strategic offensive weapons. If, in the opinion of one of the parties, a new type of strategic offensive weapons appears, it can raise this issue for consideration by the Bilateral Consultative Commission.

• April 8, 2010. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama during the ceremony of signing the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms (START). The ceremony was held in the Spanish Hall of the residence of the President of the Czech Republic, Prague Castle
• RIA News
• © Dmitry Astakhov

START III entered into force on February 5, 2011, which means that it expires at the beginning of 2021. If the parties do not have time to extend the agreement to this point, the document will cease to be valid.

Moscow has long been offering Washington to extend the treaty. In the summer of 2018, Vladimir Putin, in an interview with Fox News, said that he assured his American colleague that Moscow was ready to prolong the contract. Those issues that Russia has with its American partners on the terms of the agreement must be discussed at the expert level, the president added then.

The Russian leader repeated this idea during a large press conference held in December 2019. Responding to a question from journalists about what Moscow can do for strategic stability, the head of state noted that the Russian side is now ready to extend START III.

“If tomorrow they send us by mail or we are ready to sign and send to Washington, let the appropriate leaders, including the president, put their signature there, if they are ready. But so far there is no answer to all our proposals. And if there is no START III, then there will be nothing at all in the world that holds back the arms race. And this, in my opinion, is bad, ”the Russian leader emphasized.

However, the US side is in no hurry to extend the strategic agreement, demanding not only to extend the restriction to new Russian weapons, but also to include China in the role of a third country in the agreement. This, in particular, was stated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a joint press conference in Washington with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

In addition, the State Department believes that over the years since the signing of START III the balance of power between the countries has changed, as well as new types of weapons and threats.

A similar point of view was voiced earlier by the deputy head of the Pentagon, John Rood, during a hearing in the US Senate. According to him, the extension of the current agreement may prevent the creation of a broader agreement with Beijing.

“If the United States agreed to extend the agreement now, this could reduce the likelihood that we will be able to convince Russia and China to begin negotiations on a broader agreement,” he said, explaining that the parties still have time to think.

However, Beijing made it clear that it does not plan to accede to the Russian-American strategic offensive arms treaty. This was stated by Director of the Department of Arms Control and Disarmament of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China Fu Tsun, speaking to reporters at the IV Moscow Conference on Non-Proliferation. The event took place in November 2019.

• US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
• Reuters
• © Juan Carlos Ulate

It should be noted that the approach promoted by the current US administration runs into criticism in Western military-political circles. According to former NATO Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller, speaking in December at a hearing on the Foreign Affairs Committee of the lower house of Congress, the Alliance is in favor of prolonging START III. Gottemoeller noted that the extension of the treaty is important from the point of view of the national security of the United States.

At the same time, according to experts, Beijing’s position on this issue is well founded. As military expert Viktor Litovkin noted in an interview with RT, Washington insists on joining the PRC talks because Donald Trump wants to go down in history as a leader, forcing Beijing to join the strategic arms reduction treaty.

“However, China will not agree to these conditions, since the country has significantly smaller nuclear arsenals than Russia and the United States. The Chinese authorities reasonably believe that before conducting such conversations, the States themselves must reduce the number of their nuclear weapons to the Chinese level, ”Litovkin explained.

A similar point of view is shared by the expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Sergey Ermakov.

“Russia and China are designated as rivals in the US national security strategy. Therefore, the Americans want to get an additional tool for monitoring the Chinese arsenals, despite the serious disparity with Beijing in this area, ”explained the source RT.

Fighting Obama's Legacy

The situation surrounding the extension of START III is a concern not only for the UN, but also for Europe. A draft report of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, published earlier, said the United States and Russia should be encouraged to resume dialogue on arms control. Moscow and Washington should take responsibility, given that they own most of the world's nuclear arsenals, according to the authors of the document.

According to experts, in reality, the extension of START III is beneficial for the United States, however, the White House leadership postpones this step for political reasons. As Viktor Litovkin explained, in the event that START III disintegrates following the example of the expired INF Treaty, the US military will lose the ability to control the development of strategic offensive weapons in Russia.

“Now the parties can send specialists to monitor the situation. For example, last year the Americans visited Russia 18 times with inspections, visited the positions of strategic missile forces. If START ceases, the States will only have to track the situation with satellites that do not provide a complete picture. Loss of predictability is not in the interests of the United States, ”the expert said.

• Strategic Heavy Bomber Northrop B-2 Spirit
• Reuters
• © US Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. Andy dunaway

However, Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his unwillingness to adhere to international agreements that impose some kind of restrictions on the States. The demands put forward by the American side now are more politically, rather than defensely motivated, experts say.

“It is obvious that, being in the strategic arms treaty, the United States will have to limit itself in some ways, and this is not in the spirit of the current American administration. In addition, Trump is trying to cross out many of the decisions of his predecessor, Democrat Barack Obama. It was Obama who put his signature on the START III treaty, so Trump does not want to extend the validity of this document, ”said Litovkin.

In turn, Sergei Ermakov noted that there are people in the Trump administration who are absolutely not interested in having the arms control regime in its current form.

“Moreover, some have a desire to terminate this agreement in order to create some kind of“ effective mechanism ”that would in fact meet exclusively American interests, and would not be the result of a compromise,” the expert said.

The alarm with which the UN and the EU comment on the extension of START III is well founded. Since if the agreement breaks up, a dangerous situation of uncertainty and instability will arise, Yermakov believes.

“Most likely, the US administration will try to initiate a bargain both with Moscow and along the domestic political line in case of destruction of START III. Obviously, on the eve of the election, the Trump team will carefully watch how the situation with START III will affect the political situation within the country. And I must say that many in the US understand that, having broken the agreement, it will not be possible to automatically create a new document. On the contrary, a situation of uncertainty and disorder will arise, ”the expert summed up.