He was worried about donor support .. The government of Sudan is fighting the economy without friends

Ahmed Fadl-Khartoum

The transitional government in Sudan pledged last Tuesday to the disappearance of bread lines, an economic commitment that puts the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk on a critical political test.

In the pledge of the Minister of Trade and Industry, Madani Abbas, to disappear the bread crisis after three weeks, opponents of the revolution government found an opportunity to compare with the promises made by his predecessor in the defunct regime, Hatem Al-Sir, who asserted during the protests that there will be no class except for prayer.

But Hatem al-Sir and the government of ousted President Omar al-Bashir went as a result of protests sparked by the bread crisis and fuel lines, money and transportation, and they are the same crises that the government of Hamdok is struggling to get out of safely.

According to Sumaya Syed, a journalist specializing in economic affairs, pledges that bread queues will disappear within three weeks remain difficult given the weak strategic wheat stocks.

Wheat stock
Sumaya says in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the available wheat currently does not exceed 50 thousand tons, which is barely enough for three days in light of the majority of wheat mills stopping.

However, it believes that fulfilling the government's promises to end the scarcity of bread is possible in the event that government subsidies are removed from the flour as a necessary surgical operation, while supporting the weaker segments by allocating bakeries for subsidized bread, for example.

The journalist notes that thousands of foreigners enjoy subsidized flour, and that tons of it are smuggled into neighboring countries via open borders that are difficult to control security.

According to Sumaya, the Minister of Trade and Industry has a solution to implement his promises, which is liberalizing the price of flour, but the government is under pressure from the ruling coalition forces, which refuse to lift government subsidies on fuel and wheat for fear of political consequences.

She adds that the government is also facing pressure due to differences between the mills and the Ministry of Finance, as the former is demanding a profit of 50 pounds ($ 1.1 in the official price) per bag of wheat.

Alternative proposals
The governing coalition that led and coordinated the revolution is offering a package of treatments, none of which is to lift government support in the 2020 budget.

Issam Ali Hussein, a member of the Economic Committee for Freedom and Change Forces participating in the coalition, says that the transitional government - before turning to friendly and donor countries - should prevent foreign currency from dealing in the banking system by enacting deterrent laws.

Hussein calls on the government to reduce the demand for the dollar by reviewing the list of imported goods, and to ban luxury goods and those that can be produced internally for a limited period of time, while reducing smuggling and sparing, reviewing customs exemptions and reforming taxes.

Besides, Hussein sees the need to develop policies at a strategic level that increase productivity and encourage production and the development of export infrastructure, especially gold, livestock and gum Arabic exports, to address the trade imbalance.

The exchange rate of the dollar on the black market exceeded 100 pounds this week, following a rumor that the customs dollar increased to 55 pounds instead of 18, before falling again to less than 90 pounds.

External support
Journalist and political analyst Mohamed Latif does not seem comfortable with Gulf or even Western support, given that there is a political tax that the country pays for this support, saying, "I hope external support will not come."

Latif puts in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net the government of Hamdok in front of two options that have no third, either to depend on its decision by an external party or to approach the people by linking the belts, stressing that Sudan is a rich country and all its problem is mismanagement.

He indicates that the pledges of the Saudi-Emirati grant amounting to $ 3 billion have not yet exceeded $ 1.1 billion, and he says that this grant was a reward for the Sudanese to overthrow the Islamists, but after they found that they were still present and organized the demonstrations they stopped, wishing they could stop their hands forever.

Latif thinks that the Western support is worse and cannot be wagered, wondering, "How many donor pledges have arrived at the $ 4 billion Oslo conference in 2005?"

Friends conference
Although a member of the Economic Committee for the Powers of Change shows some betting on the Friends of Sudan conference next April, he returns and warns that the concept of relations between countries is not based on the principle of friendship but rather on the principle of dual benefit.

Hussain states that the solution lies at home, not waiting for what donors can find, stressing the importance of taking a package of measures, measures, measures, and economic and financial policies in a timely and strategic manner to reduce fluctuation in the exchange rate, starting by absorbing the volume of liquidity outside the banking system estimated at more than 80% to reduce speculation In the dollar.

He continues that these plans and programs are more capable of dealing with the foreign exchange crisis than relying on friendly countries and donor funds.

Hussein explains that the structural economic crisis in Sudan is due to weak production and less exports compared to imports and a deficit in the trade balance, a crisis inherited from the defunct system.

The decrease in the value of the national currency is attributed to speculation and demand for buying dollars more than normal.

In addition to the widespread currency trade outside the banks, the Sudanese resort to storing basic commodities whenever the dollar exchange rate rises, and traders deliberately refrain from buying and selling goods while awaiting a relative stability of the dollar price.