Mohamed Abdullah - Cairo

Among the most pressing questions in the minds of many Egyptians as they receive the ninth anniversary of the January 25, 2011 revolution: Is their country's economy on the right track, and has it improved on the official and popular levels, and what are the indications for that, whether the answer is negative or positive?

Interestingly, the answer to the economy’s question includes in its essence political dimensions related to the January revolution. If the Egyptian economy was in progress and prosperity, the regime’s supporters will say that the credit for this is due to the economic program launched by the Egyptian government in 2015, and to the tightening of security measures in order to avoid what it describes as the chaos that It was left by the January Revolution and adversely affected the economy.

But if the Egyptian economy is deteriorating, supporters of the regime will say that the January revolution is the reason, while its supporters will say that the decline of the Egyptian economy is caused by the coup of July 3, 2013, and the political and economic measures that followed.

An improvement or decline
In turn, the Egyptian government says it has achieved great success with its experience in economic reform, as indicators of economic performance have improved significantly over the past year, as it is the beginning of the fruit-bearing phase, according to the government’s description.

In a report on its 2019 economic harvest, the Egyptian government enumerated these achievements, such as: a decrease in the budget deficit from 11.4% in 2014 to 8.4% in 2019, and achieving an initial surplus of 2% of GDP instead of an initial deficit of 3.5% in 2014.

Likewise, the unemployment rate decreased from 13.3% to 7.5%, and the inflation rate decreased from 33% in 2017 to 3.4%. At the same time, the growth rate rose from 4.4% to 5.6%, and the foreign exchange reserves jumped from 12 billion dollars in 2014 to about 45.2 billion dollars at the end of last October.

On the other hand, critics believe that the Egyptian economy’s path of positive indicators is reflected positively on its budget and its economic performance only, and not on the economic conditions of Egyptians who are suffering greatly compared to their conditions nine years ago, where the prices of housing, clothing, drinks, goods and services have doubled, and subsidies have decreased, Taxes increased.

The government reduced energy subsidies to about 57 billion pounds, equivalent to 17.4% of the total support in this year's budget, compared to 97.5 billion pounds, which was equivalent to 50% of the total support in the 2014 budget.

High debt also represents a challenge to the Egyptian economy, as domestic debt increased to 4.204 trillion pounds in 2019, compared to 1044 billion pounds in 2011, and the external debt increased to 109.36 billion dollars compared to about 34.9 billion dollars, raising the per capita external debt from 413 dollars To 1100 dollars, according to the central bank.

on the right track
"I imagine that with the rate of growth that Egypt achieved this year, we will have reached the economic situation before the January 25 revolution, and we hope to surpass it as soon as possible, and perhaps the forecasts for the next fiscal year will be better," says Alia Al Mahdi, former dean of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science.

In her interview with Al-Jazeera Net, the doctor added that the political crises that the country has gone through since that time, whether positive or negative, that lead to economic confusion, can not be ignored, as happens when some countries are exposed to natural disasters or other crises.

Regarding the economic future, Al-Mahdi stressed that the economy was put on the right track as a result of achieving strong economic indicators, such as those announced by the government, from declining unemployment rates, low inflation, and increasing the rate of economic growth.

On the other hand, the economic advisor, Ahmed Khazim, described the developments that the Egyptian economy went through during that period as a monetary reform, not an economic one, saying, "What has been done since 2015 is monetary and financial reform and not economic reform," adding, "Did this reform pay off in reform? Economist, one saying: No. "

Khazim stressed in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that the Egyptian economy is suffering from a real crisis as a result of the presence of an administration that he described as inefficient, indicating that the size of borrowing is huge, and the budget deficit is large.

The economist added, "It can be said about the past nine years that they are years of lost opportunities, as a result of the lack of value-added school owners in the joints of the Egyptian economic decision, and the presence of owners of voluntary or tax school, despite Egypt's having the capabilities and capabilities to double production."

Citizen of improvement
For his part, Sherif Othman, a banking expert in the United States of America, believes that the measure of improving economic indicators is that the citizen must be, especially since more than a third of Egyptians are below the poverty line, according to the Egyptian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Othman told Al-Jazeera Net that five million citizens fell below the poverty line from 2015 to 2018, and according to the World Bank, 60% of Egyptians are either poor or vulnerable to poverty.

He attributed the reason to the mismanagement and poor prioritization, and the preference of the people of trust over the people of experience, despite all the resources and wealth that Egypt possesses, as well as the billions that successive governments borrowed and the assets sold.