When Iranian leader Ali Khamenei was leading last Friday prayers at the Tehran Grand Mosque for the first time in eight years, he described the Ukrainian plane crash as a "bitter accident", and that external enemies are using it as an excuse to discredit Iran. But the real threat to the regime, which has spent several decades to establish its rule, is the discontent of the Iranian people, and whether the plane crash took place on the eighth of January, or what followed from covering up the role of Iran in it, all of this is at the heart of the grievances that anger the Iranians and alienate them from their government. .

While the Ukrainian plane crash reveals the government's malice and disregard for its citizens, its unrelenting crackdown on the demonstrations that resulted from the plane crash confirms that it will not be affected by any meaningful accountability.

After decades of international sanctions that have hindered Iran's ability to buy new aircraft and obtain spare parts for them, the country's fleet of civil aviation has become old and has a reputation for disaster and disaster, to the point that old reports say that aircraft engine problems have become commonplace for people accustomed to the danger Civil aviation, but the initial explanations for the fall of the Ukrainian plane were a set of false allegations, in fact, the crash of this plane was at the hands of the Iranian air defenses themselves.

During the reprisal against the United States over the air strike that killed the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani, it appeared that those responsible for the air defenses had erred in their calculations and believed that the civilian plane was an American missile, but this catastrophe would not have occurred if Tehran She had taken precautionary measures and stopped the civil aviation movement when she began hitting missiles at American forces in Iraq, but Iranian leaders did not take this step. The London-based news channel, Iran International, which is critical of the Iranian government, said an unnamed source, that Iranian officials believed that a civilian plane in the sky would deter Americans from conducting counterattacks.

Following the disclosure of the number of the victims of the ill-fated plane, which amounts to 176 people, most of whom are Iranians or holders of dual nationality, there were swift anti-regime demonstrations in Iranian cities. To the escalation of the situation between Iran and the United States.

But the killing of Soleimani and the resulting escalation circle covered another price that ordinary Iranians paid in this latest round of conflict with the United States, as the stampede during the procession of Soleimani's burial in Kerman city killed about 50 Iranians and injured hundreds of others.

These losses, in addition to the victims of the Ukrainian plane, came two months after the government security forces killed about 1,500 Iranians during the unrest that erupted last November.

All these events reveal a history of the suffering that Iranian leaders inflicted on their people just as their enemies did.

Ideological requirements

During the waves of unrest that rocked Iran during the past few years, the demonstrators expressed their anger at their government, which preferred the ideological requirements of its leaders over the basic needs of the Iranian people, and many of these demonstrators concluded that Iran's attempts to become a regional power, including its support for proxy forces such as the movement "Hamas" and the Lebanese "Hezbollah" came at the expense of the country's growth, and they started launching a common slogan: "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, we sacrifice for Iran."

momentum

Behind these feelings lie a deeply rooted impetus, which has marked a whole century of struggle to reach a representative government in Iran from the start. As for concealment and secrecy, it is at the heart of Iran's legacies, and any officials who have spoken publicly about the regime's persistence in using violence against its people or preventing it from spoiling its institutions are subject to mutilation and repression.

The Iranian government’s acknowledgment of its responsibility to shoot down the Ukrainian plane is a rare exception, and American human rights specialist Jesso Nea said that many Iranians are convinced that the disaster could be dealt with differently, if the issue was a purely domestic issue.

Although its responsibility for the incident has been recognized, Tehran has so far been reluctant to hold the leaders responsible for it accountable, and so far the judicial work related to the launch of a missile at the Ukrainian plane is still directed against those who helped reveal the truth to the world. Iran is said to have arrested the person who leaked the video, which allowed investigative journalists to confirm the validity of US and Canadian officials' suspicions about the incident.

Ultimately, there is little reason to believe that a public acknowledgment of a mistake by the Iranian military by shooting down the aircraft could lead to any meaningful form of accountability by Iran's regime.

The security establishment in Iran is now dealing with the shock of its loss, one of its most influential personalities, General Soleimani. In addition, it is unclear whether the shooting down of the Ukrainian plane is a mistake that could end with the army. The Iranian media has talked about the role that Khamenei played himself in Supervising missile strikes from the military operations center. The comparison appears blatant between the indifference of government officials to the lives of the Iranians, and the apparent avoidance by the Iranian army of killing any American soldier in Iraq or elsewhere.

True accountability for the downing of the Ukrainian plane could come from the protesters, whom the Khamenei government is trying to eliminate, but regardless of what this latest turmoil will lead to, it will not be the end of the challenges facing the Iranian leadership of its citizens.

It seems that the anger and grief over the victims of the Ukrainian plane, in which demonstrators from many social classes participated, differ from those who participated in the demonstrations of poverty and inequality, who were mostly poor people who feel angry at their lack of opportunities and decent living, and the corruption that is eating away at the regime.

But this time, the turmoil was concentrated in Iranian universities, and the voices of students condemning Iran were middle-class, and for them the tragic end of the hopes of well-educated Iranians, who made themselves a life abroad, was echoed strongly, and this means that Iran and its leader must The 80-year-old dealt with several sources of violent popular discontent at a time when external pressure on the state is escalating, and that the transfer of power, whether by elections or successively, seems strong. Iran has sailed through dangerous waters over and over the past four decades, but the currents are now more dangerous than ever.

Susan Maloney is a Fellow at the Environment and Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution

Tehran is exposed to what journalist Christian Oliver described as a "proficiency crisis", which is a growing feeling among the population that the government's legitimacy is largely associated with the standard of living, and that revolutionary enthusiasm will not bring food to the people.

Anger and sadness at the victims of the Ukrainian plane, in which demonstrators from various social strata participated, differ from those who participated in the demonstrations of poverty and inequality, most of whom were angry by the lack of decent living, and corruption that is eating away at the regime.

Man-made disasters

Observers and critics talked about the echo of a debate taking place in the Iranian political establishment, where the multiple parties in the government were exchanging accusations about who was responsible for a number of man-made disasters, including the fire that broke out in 2017, which led to the destruction of a building in Tehran About a dozen firefighters died in it, the destruction caused by an earthquake in 2017, and finally the Great Flood in various regions of Iran. The country is exposed to what journalist Christian Oliver described as a "proficiency crisis", which is a growing feeling among the population that the legitimacy of the government has become largely associated with the standard of living, and that revolutionary enthusiasm will not bring food to the people.