Biased Arbitrator: Are There Any Prospects for Upcoming US-Palestinian-Palestinian Deal

The Palestinian side will reject any steps by the United States towards a Middle East settlement that would violate international law. This statement was made by the spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Nabil Abu Rdene against the backdrop of reports of the intention of the US authorities in the near future to publish the details of the "deal of the century."

“If the agreement contains formulas that we reject, our leadership will announce the adoption of a number of measures to protect our legitimate rights, and we will demand that Israel take full responsibility as an occupying country,” Palestinian news agency WAFA quoted Abu Rdene as saying.

He also warned Tel Aviv and Washington “against crossing the red lines,” calling for an end to the occupation of the Palestinian territories and the creation of an independent Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem.

The fact that Donald Trump is going to take up the process of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the near future is the first to be announced this week by US Vice President Michael Pence during his visit to Jerusalem.

“President Trump asked me to invite Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House next week to discuss the region’s problems and the prospects for peace here in the Holy Land,” he said at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The visit of an Israeli politician to Washington is scheduled for January 28. Together with him, his main political opponent Beni Ganz will come to the American capital. On March 2, parliamentary elections will be held in Israel, the main struggle will be between the Likud party led by Netanyahu and the Kahol-Lavan block of the Ganz.

On Wednesday, January 23, Trump confirmed at a briefing that he was going to discuss with the Israeli politicians the so-called “deal of the century” - a peace agreement between the Jewish state and the Palestinians. According to him, both sides of the conflict are striving for peace, although they are not ready to say so openly. However, he mentioned that the Palestinian side could negatively meet the proposed version of the agreement.

“We spoke briefly with them. But we'll talk to them after a while, ”Trump said. “And they have many reasons to make contact.” "I think that at first they might react negatively, but in fact it is to a large extent in their interests."

The United States looks forward to welcoming Prime Minister @Netanyahu & Blue & White Chairman @Gantzbe to the @WhiteHouse next week. Reports about details and timing of our closely-held peace plan are purely speculative.

The president of the United States later said on Twitter that all statements about the details and timing of the publication of his peace plan are speculation.

"Deal of the Century"

It is worth noting that the US president has been saying for several years that he has a plan designed to put an end to the Jewish-Arab conflict. However, what it is, Trump does not specify.

In 2019, the Israel Ha Yom newspaper, close to Netanyahu, published material that allegedly contained the provisions of the “deal of the century”. Among them - the creation of an independent Palestinian state with a capital in Jerusalem, which will simultaneously be the capital of Israel; blocks of Jewish settlements and the territory of the Jordan River Valley will remain with the Jewish state, but the Palestinians will receive part of the Egyptian territory for rent.

• Mahmoud Abbas
• Reuters
• © Alaa Badarneh / Pool

Neither Israel nor the United States officials have confirmed that these items are included in the "deal of the century." Thus, the content of the American peace plan is still a mystery.

The president of the Society for Friendship and Business Cooperation with Arab Countries, Vyacheslav Matuzov, stated that, despite leaks in the press, no one knows exactly what Trump will offer the Palestinians and Israelis.

“The details of this“ deal of the century ”are absolutely unknown. But in this case they are important. Judging by what was published in the Israeli press, this is an absolutely unacceptable plan neither for the Palestinians, nor for the Arab states, nor for the international community, ”the source said.

“If the western bank of the Jordan remains with Israel, it is not clear what kind of independent state we can talk about? It turns out that this is not about independence, but about the elimination of Palestinian autonomy, ”Matuzov added.

It should be noted that the Washington Post treats the Abu Rdene statement above as a threat to the Palestinian leadership to abandon the Oslo peace agreements concluded in 1993. They were signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization. In accordance with them, the West Bank and Gaza Strip are transferred to the Palestinian Authority, which is administered by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Thus, the rejection of the Oslo Accords will mean the cessation of all dialogue between the Palestinians and the Israelis and a return to the situation before 1993.

“This option cannot be ruled out. If there is an attempt to solve the Palestinian problem without the Palestinians and the world community, through the agreements of Israel and America, then any Palestinian-Israeli negotiations lose all meaning. The peace process will be undermined, ”Matuzov said.

Moreover, in the event of a possible refusal of agreements in Oslo, which signifies the dissolution of the PNA, the Palestinian people will not be left without leadership. The Palestine Liberation Organization will again stand at the helm, which will continue the struggle for independence, the expert believes.

Election plan

Analysts also suggest that Trump’s statement about the "deal of the century" may be more or less pre-election in nature. So, perhaps, the American president does not expect his proposals to be accepted by the conflicting parties. However, efforts to achieve peace will be appreciated by its constituents.

“Maybe Trump has a real plan for a“ deal of the century, ”and he expects to somehow persuade the Palestinians to accept it. And perhaps he only plans to negotiate with Israel and Palestine until the November presidential election. In the field of foreign policy, Trump does not have very impressive achievements. Therefore, of course, he needs foreign policy success. Or at least the appearance of success, ”said Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt United States Research Foundation at Moscow State University, in a conversation with RT.

• Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu
• Reuters
• © Ronen Zvulun / File

Vyacheslav Matuzov also admits that speaking of the “deal of the century”, Trump is trying to help the Likud party. According to him, Netanyahu creates for himself the image of a person who knows how to find a common language with the United States, so Trump probably wants to play along with this by proposing a peace plan that is beneficial to Israel.

“But in general, both Arab and Jewish analytical circles are skeptical of all the proposals for a peaceful settlement of the Middle East conflict that come from the White House. They are rated as part of Trump's public relations campaign. They are sure that these efforts are doomed to failure, ”Matuzov said.

In addition, it is very difficult for the US authorities to offer conditions that would suit the Palestinians, because Washington is not perceived by the Arabs as an impartial mediator, Rogulev said.

“The United States has been Israel’s main ally, sponsor since its founding. They provide moral, financial and military assistance to the Jewish state. Little depends on the presidents: both the authorities and public opinion of the United States have always regarded Israel as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for Americans in the Middle East. They have no reason to abandon such a position, ”said the analyst.

In turn, Matuzov expressed the opinion that the Palestinians are more willing to accept Moscow as an intermediary in matters of a Middle East settlement than Washington.

“Russia did not deviate from the general line that was laid back in Soviet times. Moscow has consistently advocated the preservation of Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state in the territories that the Palestinians are occupying now. This shows President Putin’s visit to Tel Aviv and Bethlehem, where he met with Mahmoud Abbas. I think that in this respect Russia has a much greater chance than the USA to become a mediator in solving Middle Eastern problems, ”Matuzov said.

At the same time, experts believe that Washington will counteract the mediating role of Moscow, therefore, a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not visible in the near future.