A Breakthrough Initiative: How Putin's Summit of Permanent Members of the UN Security Council Can Affect the Situation in the World

Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that next week Moscow will send official messages to China, the United States, Britain and France with detailed proposals for a summit of leaders of the UN Security Council’s permanent members. According to Peskov, the Kremlin will wait for the reaction “with impatience”.

A day earlier, speaking at the Fifth World Holocaust Forum in Israel, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed holding a summit of the leaders of the Russian Federation, the United States, China, France and the United Kingdom. As the Russian leader emphasized, these five powers "bear a special responsibility for the preservation of civilization."

“We discussed with some colleagues and, as I understand it, we generally saw a positive reaction, the opportunity to hold a meeting of the heads of state - permanent members of the UN Security Council: Russia, China, the United States, France and the UK,” said Vladimir Putin.

According to him, Russia is ready to organize or take part in such a summit anywhere in the world and at any time. One of the issues that could be discussed at such a meeting, the President of the Russian Federation called the situation in Libya. However, as Vladimir Putin noted, there are many other problems that require the attention of permanent members of the Security Council.

In addition, as the Russian leader emphasized, it is symbolically important to hold such a summit in the year of the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II and the founding of the UN.

“The summit of the states that made the main contribution to the defeat of the aggressor, the creation of a post-war world order system would play a huge role in finding collective answers to modern challenges and threats and, of course, would demonstrate our common fidelity to the spirit of alliance, historical memory, those high ideals and values for which our ancestors, our grandfathers, our fathers fought shoulder to shoulder, ”said Vladimir Putin.

As Dmitry Peskov explained on January 24, the essence of Russia's proposal is to “begin to search for ways to defuse oneself, to answer the challenges that humanity now faces.”

World reaction

Back in Jerusalem, one of the leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - French President Emmanuel Macron supported the proposal of his Russian counterpart. Calling Putin "a dear friend," the French leader agreed that "the five founding nations of the UN have a special historical responsibility."

• Emmanuel Macron
• Reuters
• © Abir Sultan / Pool

“And now we need to get together again, and we really talked about this a few days ago,” added Macron. “We must get together and talk about it, because we, of course, understand the importance of historical events and must ensure the stability of the world order, which is based on international law and human rights.”

They reacted positively to Putin’s initiative in China as well.

“We are ready to maintain contacts and coordination with Russia and other permanent members of the Security Council on this issue,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying.

A spokesman for the British government told RIA Novosti that London expects "further details from Moscow regarding this proposal." There has been no official US response to the Russian initiative yet.

UN Deputy Secretary General Farhan Hack, commenting on Putin’s initiative, said that "any efforts to facilitate discussions between the five permanent members of the Security Council are welcome."

The composition of the permanent members of the UN Security Council corresponds to the list of victorious powers in World War II, which made a decisive contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany, militaristic Japan and their allies. These countries have played a key role in the creation of the UN. Therefore, in the charter of the organization, they were granted special status within the framework of the Security Council. This is a permanent UN body with the “primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security”.

The USSR, and later its successor, Russia, the USA, France, Great Britain and China have the right to veto, that is, they can block any decision of the Security Council, except for the procedural one. The remaining members of the Security Council do not have such powers.

"The world is on the edge"

Shortly before Putin’s speech in Israel, UN Secretary-General Anthony Gutteres stated that “the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are threatening the world.”

Gutteresh used the biblical metaphor to describe the four, in his opinion, the most important global threats. Among them, he put “the highest geostrategic tension”, an increase in the nuclear threat and international conflicts. The other three riders are the climate crisis, the growing mistrust of political institutions around the world, and the use of the latest technology for criminal purposes.

In turn, on January 23 in the United States, the so-called Doomsday Clock, established by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, were moved forward by 20 seconds.

Doomsday Clock is a project of the University of Chicago magazine Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. It was founded in 1947 by the creators of the American nuclear bomb. “Midnight” on the clock symbolizes the moment of a nuclear cataclysm and the probable death of mankind. Annually, the Bulletin Board of Directors translates the arrows on this symbolic dial.

The clock now shows 100 seconds before a nuclear disaster. During the Cold War, the clock came closest to the final point in 1953, when the hands were stopped at around two minutes to midnight.

According to representatives of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the world is now facing many threats. They highlighted climate change, the differences between the nuclear powers, the situation surrounding the "nuclear deal" with Iran and the problems in the negotiations on nuclear disarmament.

• UN Security Council meeting
• Reuters
• © Shannon Stapleton

In this context, the proposal of Vladimir Putin looks "over-relevant", experts say.

“The world is on the brink, a new phase of the arms race is already beginning, countries are supermilitarizing, military budgets are increasing, the United States is withdrawing from all possible treaties. A unipolar world no longer exists. It would be nice for countries, of course, to sit down at the negotiating table and work out new rules of the game in a multipolar world, ”said Konstantin Blokhin, an expert at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a conversation with RT.

Strategic stability

For a long time, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council were the only countries possessing nuclear weapons. However, in the late 1990s, India and Pakistan officially entered the nuclear club; North Korean nuclear tests are known. Israel does not refute information about the possession of nuclear weapons. Moreover, as experts say, a discussion of control over nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles could well take place within the framework of such a summit.

Recall that last year the United States withdrew from the agreement on the elimination of medium and smaller missiles (INF Treaty). In 2021, another important treaty expires — START III, which limits the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States.

• Medium Range Launch from San Nicholas Island, California
• Reuters
• © Scott Howe / US Dept of Defense / Handout

Washington is now advocating trilateral negotiations between Russia, the United States and China on nuclear arms control. Beijing, however, still takes such offers very cool.

At the same time, Russia believes that it is necessary to raise the issue of extending restrictions to the US European allies in NATO. According to Dmitry Peskov, “if we talk about the ruins of the INF Treaty and the need to compensate for something, then we cannot raise the question of Beijing’s participation only. First of all, we need to talk about the countries of Western Europe, which also have medium- and shorter-range missiles. "

In December last year, during a visit to the United States, Emmanul Macron called for the creation of a new INF Treaty taking into account the interests of Europeans.

“If the summit takes place, then, firstly, it’s worth waiting for a discussion of nuclear non-proliferation issues,” Konstantin Blokhin believes. - Secondly, the INF Treaty, from which the United States withdrew. Thirdly, the future of START III, from which, most likely, the United States will also withdraw, but it still operates until February 2021. It may also be affected by environmental problems - the same Paris climate agreement. "

In turn, the head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanova Andrei Koshkin noted in a conversation with RT that the possible themes of the summit could be trade wars, sanctions, and “hybrid” forms of confrontation between states.

Heirs of the winners

Andrei Koshkin called the proposal by Vladimir Putin “a breakthrough innovative initiative.”

According to him, a forum of this kind, "if it takes place, will contribute to the stabilization of the tense situation."

According to experts, after the end of World War II, it was the victorious powers that assumed the main burden of responsibility for maintaining order around the world.

“This five are the leading countries of the world that most of all influence the further development of world and global politics. These five states, in fact, govern all world processes. Their weapons potential, as well as their economic potential, is significantly superior to all other countries. Therefore, these are the best of the best, ”notes Konstantin Blokhin.

Despite the fact that the leaders of all the victorious countries in World War II were invited to Moscow to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the victory, and Emmanuel Macron, for example, had already given his consent, the expert believes that the most likely venue for the summit of the five powers is “ neutral "country.

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“Most likely, a state will be chosen that always acts as a moderator of relations between different countries - for example, Austria, or Switzerland, or Finland,” the expert said.

In turn, Andrei Koshkin believes that the Russian capital should not be discounted either.

“If they all gather on May 9, then they will demonstrate to the world community that they are able to drop all sorts of mutual claims, without any conventions, sit down at the negotiating table and resolve many issues that would relieve tension on the planet,” the political scientist claims.