"Somali youth" is still a great danger at the end of a bloody decade

Somalia is a country that is located in an essential part of the Horn of Africa of great international strategic importance, and it is the century that Western colonialism has long monopolized by monopolizing its positions, wealth, and ruling powers.

It is also the century that directly overlooks the huge oil production fields in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf, and at the same time it overlooks its transportation lines and its passage to the industrial west, whether through the Gulf of Aden to the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea flow to Europe and America, or across the Arabian Sea The Indian Ocean through the Mozambique Channel, to the Cape of Good Hope, is the Atlantic Ocean, where Europe and America are.

The Somali Civil War has been described as one of the worst civil wars and internal conflicts on the African continent, and there may be many factors that led to the civil war, including the internal and the external.

Although Somalia enjoys almost complete ethnic, religious, and linguistic unity, it suffers from severe divisions, with some tribes contributing to the disintegration of Somalia. The Somali economy deteriorated, and the developmental and productive institutions deteriorated, due to mismanagement, which led to the spread of bribery, forgery and forgery, due to the economic problems that prevailed throughout Somalia, due to the state of war that was experienced at home with various fronts, and abroad with Ethiopia, and so it became The wages of the employees do not meet their daily needs, which causes each of them to resort to other means of earning.

The Somali Civil War is one of the longest civil wars. It started in 1991 in the Somali capital, and before that, in the country's border areas.

A decade of losses

Al-Shabaab has faced, during the past decade, a loss of land it controlled, the flight of a number of its elements and American air strikes, but it still nonetheless poses a great danger in light of the weakness of the Somali central authority, according to analysts.

"The true characteristic of Al-Shabaab is its ability to continue," said Matt Braden, director of the Nairobi-based Sahan Center. "The movement's leaders have been killed in drone strikes and commando raids, and many bomb makers have also been killed, yet the movement continues to launch Conventional and guerrilla warfare, building bombs, and building classified and effective financial and administrative infrastructure. ”

Braiden said that the ability of the movement affiliated with Al Qaeda to inflict heavy losses in Somalia and other regions in the region, highlighting the fragility of the central government that is steeped in disputes, which focuses on staying in power, more than its focus on fighting the Islamists.

Fluctuations

At the beginning of the current decade, Al-Shabaab was at its peak. It controlled large urban centers, including parts of Mogadishu, while the internationally backed government controlled only a small part of the capital’s territory.

Somalia entered chaos after the overthrow of President Siad Barre's military regime in 1991, which led to famine and decades of chaotic warfare.

Al-Shabaab grew out of the youth wing of the Islamic Courts Union, a rival to the internationally backed government. The federation was founded in 2004 and briefly controlled large parts of Somalia.

But in the second half of 2011, the movement's strength began to diminish after the African Union (AMISOM) peacekeeping force removed it from its last stronghold in Mogadishu.

Since then, the movement's fighters have had to give up most of their strongholds, but they still control vast rural areas and have maintained their presence in urban centers through an extensive intelligence network.

"They have gained support through choice or coercion. They have a steady supply of financing through a network of taxes and extortion," Moretti Motega, Horn of Africa affairs expert at International Crisis Group, told AFP.

A United Nations expert panel report in November stated that the group's mafia tax system allowed the movement to generate revenue even in areas it did not control, such as the Mogadishu port.

In an indication of the movement's ability to infiltrate government institutions, it was found that a female suicide bomber blew herself up in government offices in Mogadishu in July, killing the city's mayor, an employee working under a false identity.

The movement's fighters turned to manufacture explosives locally. The movement's bloodiest attacks in recent years, such as the 2017 Mogadishu truck bombing that left 512 people dead.

Al-Shabaab has also been able to expand its network in the region, especially in Kenya, which suffered several attacks in response to the sending of troops to Somalia in 2011.

In January 2019, 21 people were killed in the siege of a high-end hotel in Nairobi, most of whom were youth activists born in Kenya.

The youth movement is not a government priority

Since the end of the African Union (AMISOM) peacekeeping mission in 2015, the movement's control of land has stagnated.

One of the biggest mistakes made in the fight against Al-Shabaab is that they were often expelled from the villages without a "viable plan for what will happen next," Mutega said.

With about 20,000 African Union peacekeepers leaving in 2021, analysts say the national army is not ready at all, perhaps because Britain, Turkey and the European Union are organizing separate training programs for the army.

"We do not see that there will be a coherent security force that can confront Al-Shabaab, especially if the African Union forces withdraw," Bryden said. However, he said that the main obstacle to fighting Al-Shabaab was that this was not a priority for the central government.

Instead, the government entered into political disputes with state governments, and focused on controlling local administrations in an effort to enhance their chances of being re-elected in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2020 and presidential in 2021.

Bryden said that a greater number of police and national army resources are being deployed to secure an electoral process in the central Galmudge region, rather than in offensive operations against al-Shabaab.

"This means that the government, which receives the vast majority of international support and resources to fight young people, has ranked that battle at best as a second priority," he added.

Officially, the Somali government is a transitional government, given that the country's constitution is still incomplete.

Bryden said that negotiations had begun under previous governments on completing the constitution and agreeing on the structure of the country's federation, but the current government suspended the talks.

Despite the increase in US air strikes during the era of President Donald Trump, which has killed more than 800 people since April 2017, observers believe that Al-Shabaab will continue to wreak havoc after 2020.

"It appears that Al-Shabaab is closing the contract and is in a strong position, as it was 10 years ago," Motega said.

One of the biggest mistakes made in the fight against Al-Shabaab is that they were often expelled from the villages, without a viable plan for what will happen next.

The ability of the movement affiliated with Al Qaeda to inflict heavy losses in Somalia and other regions in the region, highlighting the fragility of the central government, which is steeped in disputes that focus on staying in power, more than fighting the Islamists.

Somalia suffers from severe divisions, despite its almost complete ethnic, religious and linguistic unity.