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In theory, the head of the Kremlin will complete his fourth and last mandate in 2024 since the 1993 Constitution prohibits him from running for a fifth time. Commentators, however, do not all agree on the intentions of the Russian president. Overview of the different tracks mentioned.
From our correspondent in Moscow,
Vladimir Putin has imposed an infernal pace on the Russian political class. Resignation of the Medvedev government, appointment of a new Prime Minister and announcement of a reform of the Constitution … A hellish pace and a single objective: to prepare after 2024, date on which will end the mandate started in 2018. But what are the scenarios?
Scenario 1 : the constitutional revision is not considered retroactive. It resets the counters to zero and therefore allows Vladimir Putin to introduce himself again! Scenario evoked by several jurists who consider it possible but all the same unlikely.
Scenario 2 : Vladimir Putin heads the Council of State, an institution currently " on the back burner " but which should emerge strengthened from the constitutional reform. The amendment proposed by Vladimir Putin strengthens its powers, without specifying who will take the lead. For many observers, the current Russian president reserves the possibility of continuing to play a role through this. " No matter what form it takes!" I think there will be a form of two-headed governance , Tatiana Stanovaya analysis, of the R.Politik think tank. " A" tandemocracy "which will allow Vladimir Putin not to remain at the head of the country, but to remain in power. " The option seems to be mistaken with that chosen by Nursultan Nazarbayev to stay in power in Kazakhstan. " Except that Nazarbayev carried out a far more radical reform of the Constitution than in Russia , nuances the political scientist. In Russia, if Vladimir Putin heads the Council of State, I think he will not have powers as extensive as those retained by Nazarbayev in his country. "
Scenario 3 : Vladimir Putin gives up power for good, he only seeks to ensure a stable succession and to strengthen the institutions. " This is a scenario he experienced in 2000 and which is that of a real change of generation and leaders," analyzes Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow. We must never forget that Vladimir Putin was very popular at the very beginning in the 2000s by an effect of contrast with Boris Yeltsin, a finishing Boris Yeltsin. I think that the image of Boris Yeltsin and before him of the Soviet leaders of the early 1980s is a very strong deterrent both for Putin and for the Russians. And I'm not sure that Putin's ultimate dream is to end his life in power. "
Scenario 4 : The transition could be done ... before 2024! Whatever the intentions of Vladimir Putin for the future, it could be that the Russian president intends to shake up the electoral calendar and anticipate the deadlines of 2021 (legislative) and even that of 2024! " The hypothesis of early elections, which has been mentioned in the Russian press, is to be taken seriously ," said Tatiana Stayonova. That would explain why Vladimir Putin precipitates things so much. In addition, in his January 15 speech to Parliament, he announced very expensive and very important social assistance. The political benefit he will derive from it will only last one or two years, so we can ask the question : why is he doing this now, if not because he wants to organize early elections ? "
In the meantime, the revision of the Constitution will have to be completed. The Russian press estimates that it could be done very quickly, and that the "national vote" (the government refuses to speak about referendum) will be organized as of April.