ANALYSIS: An unholy alliance runs over the government

The January agreement between the Social Democrats, the Environment Party, the Center Party and the Liberals was supposed to create a stable government despite its minority position. Few questions were judged to be of the nature that the Left Party could in fact agree with the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Swedish Democrats.

Today, one year later, we can conclude that these assessments were incorrect. The January agreement created a difficult resurgence in two parties in particular: the Left Party and the Moderates. In the Left Party for being equated with the Sweden Democrats and declared undesirable by the January parties. In the Moderates for the perceived betrayal of the Center Party and the Liberals, who, after all, worshiped Ulf Kristersson and instead released Stefan Löfven as prime minister.

For it is really a sensation that the Left Party has now settled on parts of economic policy with its traditional main opponents, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats. And also that this settlement is blessed and made possible by the support of the Swedish Democrats. A year ago, such a deal would have been politically impossible. It is not today. And it says pretty much about the forces that were set in motion after the January agreement.

The Moderates, on the other hand, are so hot at giving Stefan Löfven and the Center Party a nose burn that they are not only prepared to thump the orderly budget process, which they have always hailed, but also settle with the Left Party even though they have not received a single of the their proposals to strengthen the police and judiciary.

When the Moderates last week launched their proposal for an extra budget, the demands for more money for the police and the judiciary were as important as the demand for more money for welfare. It has also characterized the rhetoric of the Moderates throughout the fall and winter: Nothing is more important than breaking the alarming crime trend in the country. Therefore, the party's most important requirements are stricter laws and more resources for the police and the judiciary. Already in the summer of last year Ulf Kristersson founded this rhetoric and political direction.

But when the final budget deal with V and KD was presented today, there was not a row with about the police and the judiciary. Not a dime. For natural reasons. The Left Party did not want to hear about it.

For the Moderates, however, the success of this settlement is primarily tactical. Not only do they succeed in undermining the government's authority, but they have also joined the Left Party in giving the Swedish Democrats a decisive role in this budget decision. Thus, the Left Party also contributes to normalizing the Swedish Democrats, which is what the Moderates want.

Being able to give the Center Party an earful at the same time is a welcome bonus for angry moderates, who have not yet forgotten the betrayal a year ago. It is therefore no coincidence that the large financing item is the Center Party's parade question about entry deductions for companies that are hiring young people and newcomers. Now that proposal is stopped. That the Environmental Party's new variant of the free year at the same time is deleted, probably not many people cry over. Nor is Stefan Löfven's innovation council now buried.

One consequence of the settlement, if it is now completed in Parliament's finance committee, is that municipalities and regions receive SEK 2.5 billion more for welfare than with the government's proposal. Of course, this is important for debt-burdened municipalities, but hardly anything that the Moderate party leadership has left sleepless before.

Despite these additions, Sweden's municipalities and regions, SKR, still believe that the overall deficit within the country's municipalities will still be high. According to the latest calculations, it is estimated that there will be just over SEK 25 billion in 2023, which is great, but still a clear improvement over last October, when SKR estimated the deficit to SEK 43 billion in 2023.

The question is also what today's message in Parliament means for the budget process and the minority government, which has historically been a common phenomenon in Sweden.

What we now see, with an opposition that can partly dismantle the government's budget, undermines not only this government, but also future minority governments. Should Ulf Kristersson himself become prime minister for a minority government after the next election, he can thus be assured of the same treatment in Parliament. If this is the new normal in parliament, the minority government may soon be history in Sweden.

Another consequence of today's decision may be that the January parties decide to also start negotiating with the Left Party. To exclude V from all negotiations was a requirement of the Center Party and the Liberals, but that strategy has proven to be completely unsuccessful. Instead, today's message clearly shows that both the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats can exert a direct political influence in the Riksdag. And that the driving force behind this is precisely the January agreement.

If the government wants to avoid similar hardships in the future, and they will come, it will suffice for the prime minister to call the Left Party leadership and invite them to the negotiating table. But the question is whether the Center Party and the Liberals can accept it.