Iran's somewhat symbolic strike, which occurred early on the Iraqi bases containing American soldiers, seemed to satisfy Iran with a swift response to the killing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, General Qassem Soleimani, by the Americans. The Iranian strike on Ain al-Assad airbase was accompanied by a statement explaining that it does not intend to escalate unless the United States responds to its strike, and it seems that US President Donald Trump has postponed the military response now as well.
But even if Iran feels satisfied, the big question now is whether the groups close to it also feel the same way, or that they will seek revenge for Soleimani’s death by launching numerous attacks on the interests of the states and their allies.
As the chief architect of Iran's strategy of expanding its control and undermining American influence in the region, Soleimani was very liked by groups that make up Iran's arms, such as Hezbollah. Soleimani used to travel continuously to supervise a very wide network of forces that Iran had spent many years building, and this man was the source of inspiration to his followers in various regions under the control of Iranian influence, and he was known as the "living martyr", and his picture can be seen on posters Distributed from southern Lebanon to Yemen, often alongside the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei.
For this reason, the groups that represent Iran's arms have the highest voices calling on Iran to strike the United States as quickly as possible in retaliation for Soleimani’s killing. In a speech delivered by the Secretary-General of the Lebanese "Hezbollah", Hassan Nasrallah, he issued harsh warnings to the United States, saying, "The American army is the one who killed him, and this army, its bases, cadres, and ships will be our targets."
Since the day Iran directed its strike against the American base, many missiles have landed on the military bases in the Green Zone in Baghdad, which includes American forces, and it is likely that these missiles were launched by units of the Shiite forces known as the Hashd al-Shaabi, some of whom are disaffected by the statements Published by their leadership, urging its followers to show restraint and not to provoke the United States.
The comparison between Tehran’s willingness not to escalate with the United States and the hostile rhetoric issued by its arms indicates a major problem in the near future. Iran has always tried to distance itself from the activities of groups such as Hezbollah, but after Soleimani’s death, she openly announced her acceptance of what some of these groups are doing. . Last Thursday, the commander of the Air Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Amir Ali Haji Zadeh, held a press conference, where several banner of allies in the region appeared behind him, and it was clear from his words regarding the United States that if you "strike us, we will respond to you."
Whatever Iran's strategic calculations, the groups that make up their arms cannot be guaranteed to remain calm, as the Iranian expert at the American Century Foundation says, Dina Esfandiayi, who added: “I believe that Iran's arms can make America’s life like hell, and given that Iran presents itself As they are completely in control of these groups, they must be held responsible for all their actions. ”
There is another character that cannot be easily overlooked, despite all the attention focused on Soleimani’s death. The drone that killed Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi, the military commander of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades. It forms part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a group responsible for storming the US embassy in Baghdad on December 31.
When one of the leaders of the second row of the popular crowd, Abu Al-Hussein, was asked whether he would stop revenge if Iran asked him to do so, he insisted that the Iranian-backed militias will not stop asking for revenge, stressing that regardless of Iran's military strategy, its arms cannot Ensure that it remains quiet. He said, "Even if Iran stops asking for revenge, Iran will take revenge for Soleimani, and the crowd must raise the engineer."
What Iran's arms will ultimately do is very important because Tehran is unlikely to seek a conventional military confrontation with the United States, not to mention that it will seek a quick nuclear solution to its conflict with the United States, although it is expanding its capabilities to enrich uranium and shorten The time needed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Iran's influence can be compared to the outstretched hand that leaves its mark in all of the region, and Tehran has always sponsored proxy groups distributed throughout the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, and there are key players carrying out its agenda. Some of its more powerful regional allies are the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization, and the Houthi movement in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza.
Many of these allies have their own views on the killing of Soleimani, and opinions differ on how each can provide assistance to Iran to carry out its revenge. A senior Hezbollah official, who asked not to be named, confirmed that Hezbollah officials are not allowed to speak with the Western press, that his party stands ready to implement the part entrusted to it to support Iran in its conflict with the United States. "There will be a lot of escalation against American interests in the Middle East, and if the situation worsens and the United States strikes Iran, we will cut off the American hand on the Lebanese border," the official said. We will strike Israel. ”
Of course, Hezbollah is accustomed to fiery speeches, and the party has lost a number of its leaders such as Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel without the party responding more than talking about the promise of revenge. "I can say that the Iranian government needed to strike the American base to satisfy its supporters in Lebanon, Iraq, and inside Iran, as they were responding to Soleimani's death," said Professor Valley Valley Nasser, International Relations Professor Johns Hopkins. He added, "It is strange that they fired many missiles at two bases, and there were no Iraqi or American casualties, but at the same time it wanted to send a signal to the United States that it possesses the military capabilities to hit the targets they want." He pointed out that many Iranian agents understood this strike. Ltd this way.
"We imposed on America a new defense strategy by using advanced weapons without the United States being able to intercept them and bring them down," one of the members of the Hezbollah Brigades, whose name is Mohamed Moyhi, told Foreign Policy magazine. On the other hand, America's failure to respond to the strike shows how the United States fears our revenge. Trump's speech in response to our attack was very weak and did not even convince his followers. ”
But despite what Moihei sees as a successful display of Iran's military power, the man says that this strike is not sufficient to compensate for Soleimani's loss, indicating that there are other retaliatory strikes that could come in the near future. "This missile strike was a blow to America, not revenge," he said. Revenge will be an all-out confrontation with the American presence in the region. The strike has achieved a good target, but certainly not enough in response to the great crime against the character of the martyr Soleimani.
Sulam Anderson is an American journalist based in Beirut and New York
Fiery speeches
Hizbullah is accustomed to fiery speeches, and the party has lost a number of its leaders like Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel without the party responding with more than talking about the pledge of revenge. The various responses to the Iranian missile strike reflected in terms of the need to talk to two types of audiences, as Tehran had to assure its regional agents that it would respond to the killing of Soleimani and try to avenge him, in addition to that she wanted to send a message to Washington that it still had sharp teeth, But without reaching the point of inciting an all-out war.
Even if Iran feels satisfied, the big question now is whether the groups close to it also feel the same way, or that they will seek revenge for Soleimani’s death by launching numerous attacks on the interests of the United States and its allies.
Soleimani has continuously traveled to oversee a very wide network of forces that Iran has spent many years building.