Abdullah Hamed - Cairo
Many Egyptians' anxiety about a possible thirst has not been dispelled by the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, although a book of journalists and social media influencers (close to the regime) celebrated the US statement issued after Washington’s sponsorship of the talks of the parties to the crisis.
The celebration went so far as to say that Ethiopia had been terrified by the opening of the Berenice military base on the Red Sea, and was quick to accept the Egyptian demands regarding its water rights in the Nile River.
Concern about thirst continued due to the rubber formulas of the US statement regarding Egypt's rights, according to observers who saw the statement specifically and as confirmation of Ethiopian demands.
The US Treasury issued a statement last weekend saying that the foreign and water resources ministers of the three countries agreed that the implementation of the Renaissance Dam mobilization would take place in stages, during the rainy season in general from July to August, and to continue in September according to For certain conditions.
The ministers emphasized the implementation of the subsequent stages of mobilization of the Renaissance Dam in accordance with an agreed mechanism, provided that these matters are subject to a final agreement.
Elastic formulas
For his part, dams and water expert Mohamed Hafez confirms that the stretched formulas in the American statement are intended to keep pace with the Ethiopian demands, in continuation of the same context of the negotiations that witnessed the most dangerous clauses of the 2015 agreement of principles, which included several jargon terms that caused the loss of Egypt's water rights
He pointed out that there are no numerical definitions of terms such as drought, prolonged drought, as well as serious damage, which caused the loss of the Egyptian negotiator's effort over the past five years.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Hafez said that Egypt's options have shrunk, adding, "The military solution is unacceptable, especially after America's intervention as a mediator to solve the problem."
He pointed out that the situation of Ethiopia - with the potential and importance it represents for the United States and Israel - complicates the task of Egypt thinking of a military solution, so that (US President Donald) Trump does not embarrass him politically, which will not allow the Egyptian regime to ignite a war and sabotage the peaceful balance in the East Nile region.
The dam expert expressed his expectation that the Egyptian government will submit to the will of the Trump administration in the next round, accepting the Ethiopian demands, so that the Lake of Renaissance Dam will be stored for only four years.
And he draws his forecasts through the statements of the Ethiopian Irrigation Minister Silchy Baqli, who confirmed that his country will store the entire lake of the Renaissance Dam over a period of four years and three months, starting from the flood in 2020 with the full behavior of the river during the months of the flood that start from next July.
He stressed that Cairo's approval of Ethiopia's request for the item on rapid filling and generating electricity by the end of 2020 means the Egyptian state completely relinquishing its first demands for obtaining forty billion cubic meters of water.
The Ethiopian Minister of Irrigation's statements are fully consistent with what came in the third item of the US Treasury Department’s statement last Thursday that Egypt and Ethiopia agreed to fill the Renaissance Dam only during the flood months only during July and August, while storage during September needs to inform Egypt And negotiate with it.
Define frameworks
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement before going to Washington, which revealed the disappointment of its negotiator in the course of the negotiations, criticizing the position of the Ethiopian side, which was considered a death to the path of direct negotiations.
Minister Sameh Shoukry said after the last meeting in Washington that the United States sponsored lengthy and in-depth consultations in the presence of representatives of the World Bank and support staff after meetings held between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, to reach a comprehensive agreement to fill and store the Renaissance Dam and the needs of the downstream countries.
He pointed out that the meetings came out with a definition of the conceptual frameworks and various elements of the agreement, and reached a formula for a final statement.
The Foreign Minister affirmed - in press statements - that this tour is merely an attempt to review the various issues that were addressed and the elements of importance, and it was important to agree on a specific date to return to the United States to reach the final and comprehensive agreement, which is the twenty-eighth of the current month.
Shukri is cautiously optimistic about the next round, stressing that if the parties do not reach a final agreement, there is an article in the principles agreement signed four years ago that deals with how to legally resolve the conflict.
He hopes that momentum of negotiations - after faltering - with the intervention of the United States and the World Bank, and that their sponsorship will have a positive impact, pointing out that the consultations that spanned over five years did not go in vain but created points of agreement and convergence of views.
Shukry denied that Washington has pressure papers, as it is only "a sponsor to listen to different points of view and provide a place for convening and possibilities, through support groups with extensive experience in the technical and legal dimensions, that were able to facilitate compatibility between the three countries and define the frameworks for consultation and handling."