Analysis: "M risks being accused of political gambling"

Last week, the Moderates demanded SEK 3 billion more for the country's municipalities. Shortly thereafter, the Left Party demanded at least ten billion and the Christian Democrats 6.7 billion.

A hostile majority for the government thus towered in the Riksdag, as the Swedish Democrats said they were prepared to support the other opposition parties.

The January parties (the Social Democrats, the Environment Party, the Center Party and the Liberals) were in a hurry to put together their own bid. It was important to have the negotiations in the Riksdag.

At a joint press conference in Parliament today, therefore, the January parties pledged five billion to the country's municipalities and regions.

Thus, the government has placed demands between the opposition parties, and SEK 2 billion over the bids of the Moderates. Consequently, the moderator Ulf Kristersson was asked if he was satisfied. No, he replied. But logic is not clear-cut and raises the question of whether the political game is more important than its substance.

That the Left Party and the Christian Democrats are dissatisfied with the government's command is more understandable. They want to invest more in the municipalities than the government. However, the moderates want to invest less.

Instead, it is now more important for the Moderates that the budget change be made as soon as possible and not in the spring change budget in April.

But Sweden's municipalities and regions, SKR, do not agree. The municipalities do not have liquidity problems. According to SKR's chief economist, it is about being able to plan for 2021.

Because the three opposition parties now reject the government's bid, negotiations can now start in the Riksdag. Are there conditions to agree then? Yes, at least about raising government grants to the municipalities. However, funding this venture will be a harder nut to crack.

Two examples: The moderates want to finance part of the increase in reducing aid. Both the Left Party and the Christian Democrats say no to that. The left party, on the other hand, does not think that it is necessary to finance the entire increase in government grants. The Moderates and Christian Democrats say no to that.

But there are, in fact, some things that the opposition parties of all judges agree on. One is to stop the Environmental Party's heart question about a new variant of the holiday year, the so-called development year, the other is to stop the Center Party's parade question about a special entry tax deduction, which is a reduction of employers' fees for new arrivals and young people.

This would give almost SEK 2 billion in funding, but thus far from the demands of the Left Party and the Christian Democrats for municipal initiatives.

On the other hand, it is of great political symbolic value for not least the Moderates and the Left Party to be able to run over the government in the Riksdag through a settlement. This means an increased willingness to compromise. At the same time, these parties cannot distance themselves too much from their ideological basis. This is where the main problem will be when the Riksdag negotiations enter into a decisive stage.

No matter what, municipalities and regions are the winners of the recent political turmoil in the Riksdag. At least SEK 5 billion is on the way and it may be more before spring is over.