Actors with the Libyan file are meeting today in Berlin to consolidate the ceasefire and try to stop foreign interventions that cast a shadow over the conflict in this oil-rich country.
The following are the most prominent points related to the conflict and the motives of the various parties involved in it.
Why did the conflict erupt in Libya?
Two competing powers have contested the government since 2015, after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011 following a popular revolution.
The two authorities are the government of national reconciliation recognized by the United Nations, headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, and based in the capital Tripoli (west), and a parallel authority in the east that supports retired Major General Khalifa Hifter and enjoys the support of the Tobruk parliament elected in 2014.
In 2014, Haftar launched an offensive to expel "terrorist groups" from Benghazi and Derna (east). After years of bloody battles, the two cities have been under the control of his forces since 2018.
Last January, Haftar launched another offensive to take control of the southern desert, rapidly advancing and without fighting in several cities thanks to the support of local tribes, before revealing its ultimate goal of controlling Tripoli, the center of power.
Why attack Tripoli?
Haftar controls the largest part of the Libyan lands, including the oil crescent, the economy’s lung, and is located in the east of the country.
Analysts say he does not accept that all oil revenues go to the Al-Wefaq government, even though this government is redistributing it to everyone.
On April 4, Haftar ordered his forces to advance towards Tripoli from the southern regions, then his forces quickly reached the gates of the capital.
According to a Western diplomatic source, Hifter decided to take control of Tripoli and "put the whole world in front of the fait accompli."
He was hoping for a kidnapping victory, betting on the rapid collapse of the forces of the National Accord government, but he did not take into account armed groups in the West, including the Misrata Brigades, who are strongly opposed to him.
The forces loyal to Haftar are still at the gates of Tripoli, and a ceasefire agreement initiated by Moscow and Ankara came into effect on the 12th of this month, which was marred by violations by Haftar's forces, as confirmed by the Al-Wefaq government.
What countries are involved in the conflict?
Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia support Haftar, and Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and France consider Haftar to be leading the fight against terrorism, and previously provided him with military and logistical assistance.
Russia also supports it, at least politically. Despite her denial, she is suspected of having sent mercenaries to fight alongside his forces.
The United States expressed support for Haftar, revealing direct contact between him and US President Donald Trump after the attack on Tripoli. Then it adopted a more obscure position since then.
As for the national reconciliation government, it is supported by Turkey and Qatar, and Ankara has announced sending troops to Libya to support the reconciliation forces.
What does Turkey want?
Turkish intervention in Libya is dictated by geopolitical and ideological factors, according to analysts. Turkey wants to counter the influence of Egypt and the UAE, opposing Islamic currents near Ankara.
Turkey also has economic motives. The hydrocarbon fields in the Eastern Mediterranean are of interest to them, as is the case for other countries in the region, such as Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and Israel.
Turkey, which is at risk of European sanctions because of the excavations off Cyprus, where Ankara occupies the northern part of the island, intends to benefit from an agreement it concluded with the National Accord Government on the demarcation of the maritime borders as it expands its continental shelf in a way that allows it to prospect for energy sources in the depths of the Mediterranean.
What is Russia doing in Libya?
Jalal Hershawi of the Klingdale Institute in The Hague says that Moscow sees Libya as a "definitely business opportunity but also a geo-strategic".
He adds that the presence in Libya gives the Russians a low-cost, if not profitable, means to stand up to NATO and weaken the European Union. He says that, in Russia's eyes, "Libya embodies the failure of the West" and it "wants to prove that it can succeed where Europe has failed."
What are the concerns of Europeans?
Europeans are particularly concerned that Libya may become a "second Syria" with increasing internationalization of the conflict, and they want to reduce the pressure that the immigration dossier poses on its borders and the risk of terrorist threats.