By RFIPosted on 19-01-2020Modified on 19-01-2020 at 04:42

The Libya Peace Conference held this Sunday in Berlin under the aegis of the UN opens in a tense context. The task is difficult and an agreement seems unlikely, after the failure of the discussions held in Russia earlier this week. All the major international players in this crisis will be present in Berlin. However, the chances of reaching a lasting agreement remain low, according to the United Nations envoy, Ghassam Salamé.

The objectives of the Berlin Conference are clear. It is first of all a question of consolidating the cease-fire in force since January 12 in the country, but which is rather akin to “a truce”, according to Ghassam Salamé.

The UN would like to go further by separating the two rival camps, repositioning heavy weapons, reunifying institutions, sharing resources, among others.

A French diplomatic source believes that " everyone must take responsibility " at this stage. Yet, admittedly, the chances of reaching consensus in Berlin are slim.

Marshal Haftar refuses for the moment to retreat his troops posted at the gates of Tripoli, while Fayez el-Sarraj claims " the deployment of an international force " to protect the Libyan civilian population from the bombings.

For Ghassam Salamé, " Libya needs all foreign interference to stop ". This is another major objective of this summit, which could also lead to a commitment to respect the embargo on arms deliveries.

For analyst Jalel Harchaoui, this summit represents " a real opportunity to implement all the diplomatic instruments " available to put an end to the conflict.

■ The two rival camps at the time of the Conference : what state of mind ?

A few hours before the Berlin Conference, the two rival camps of this country engaged in a race against the clock to achieve a superiority on the ground. Each party seeking to strengthen its positions to increase pressure on the opponent before the negotiation phase. The game between the Libyan parties is perilous and threatens to undermine four months of German efforts to bring the Berlin Conference to a successful conclusion.

One of the main objectives of the Berlin conference is indeed to put an end to unprecedented foreign interference. Despite the Turkish president's participation in this conference, Ankara has accelerated the transfer of Syrian mercenaries to Libya.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 3,660 Syrians are already in the country to support Fayez el-Sarraj, the head of government in Tripoli. Turkish ammunition and armored vehicles were also delivered on Saturday. A highly developed anti-aircraft defense battery was allegedly installed by the Turks at Matiga airport in Tripoli.

For its part, the Khalifa Haftar camp, supported by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, has decided to occupy oil terminals in the east of the country. Tribes loyal to him denounced in a statement the " financing of Syrian mercenaries with money from Libyan oil ". Oil production is now at a standstill, exports are blocked.

These developments throw a chill on Berlin where the sharing of Libyan wealth must therefore be discussed.

■ Berlin, temporary capital of the Libyan crisis

This is a conference unseen by its size in Berlin for decades. What are the reasons for this German involvement?

With our correspondent in Berlin, Pascal Thibaut

In 2011, Germany, by abstaining from the UN Security Council during the vote on a military intervention in Libya, broke a taboo. For the first time, Berlin disassociated itself from its Western partners and was severely criticized. The Berlin process put in place last summer can also be seen as a consequence of this abstention. Germany did not participate in this intervention, has no colonial past in Libya and has not actively supported any camp.

Berlin can therefore play the card of the neutral mediator and also prove there, at a time when it is falling apart, that multilateralism can still work. The role of Libya in migratory flows also explains Berlin's interest in recent years for this country.

The Germans want to prove that the idea of ​​international agreements is still alive and that the world is not going to become a world "according to Trump" let's say ...

Daniel Gerlach, German specialist in the Arab world

18-01-2020 - By Pascal Thibaut

Several working meetings with the different countries involved on site have been held in Berlin since last summer. Angela Merkel greeted the negotiators at a meeting in the Chancellery. The head of government phoned a lot. A week ago, she went to Moscow to meet a central actor, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In government circles, the "risk" taken by Germany is underlined. Officially, we minimize the results of the meeting. A well-oiled strategy to be able to shine in case of progress. The aim is for the Berlin Conference to lead to a sustainable and sustained process. Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said this weekend that her country could quickly participate in a force on the ground to monitor a possible agreement.

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