While four additional cases were identified on Saturday, January 18, the official figure released could be revised upwards of several hundred cases. This is indeed what scientists fear for whom the mysterious virus appeared in China could cause more contamination than the figures announced by the authorities.
Abroad, measures are increasing to prevent the disease, of the same family as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from spreading.
The last four cases listed bring the total number to at least 45 infected patients in Wuhan (central China), said the municipal commission of hygiene and health of this city, where all the Chinese cases were reported since last month.
But the virus has probably infected hundreds more than the official figure, according to scientists at a research center at Imperial College in London, which advises institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO).
In a study, they say that the figure of 1,723 infected people is much more likely. This report takes into account all the information then available on January 12.
To reach this conclusion, the researchers used the number of cases detected so far outside China - two in Thailand and one in Japan - to deduce the number of people likely to be infected in Wuhan, based on international flight data from Wuhan airport.
Previous epidemic killed 650 people
"For Wuhan to export three cases to other countries, there must be many more cases than has been announced," Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the authors, told the BBC. study, saying "significantly more concerned" than it was a week before.
The epidemic is fueling fears of a re-emergence of a highly contagious SARS virus that killed some 650 people in mainland China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003.
The offending strain is a new type of coronavirus, a family with a large number of viruses. They can cause mild illnesses in humans (like a cold) but also other more serious ones like Sras.
According to the investigation by the Chinese authorities, several infected patients had in common to work in a market in Wuhan specializing in the wholesale of seafood and fish.
Filter flights to and from Wuhan
Abroad, concern is perceptible and prevention measures are multiplying.
The United States recently announced that it will begin filtering flights from Wuhan to San Francisco Airport and JFK Airport in New York - both of which receive direct flights from Wuhan - and to from Los Angeles, where there are many connections.
Passengers will be examined by medical teams, but not systematically subjected to a sample.
Thailand, where two cases have been identified, has also tightened controls at its airports in the run-up to the Lunar New Year celebrations (January 25), a sensitive period which raises concerns about the possible spread of the virus.
On this occasion, hundreds of millions of Chinese take buses, trains and planes to spend the holidays with family. Many also go on vacation to Southeast Asia.
The authorities in Hong Kong (south) have strengthened their control measures at the borders of the autonomous territory, in particular with body temperature sensors.
The virus is causing growing concern after the death in China on Wednesday of a second patient, a 69-year-old man, who fell ill on December 31 and who saw his health worsen five days later.
With AFP
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