Mohamed Mohsen Wedd - occupied Jerusalem

The Israeli Military Intelligence Division (AMAN) included in its Intelligence Estimate for 2020 Turkey among the list of organizations and countries that threaten Israeli national security, but intelligence estimates excluded the outbreak of a military confrontation between the two countries.

Relations between Israel and Turkey worsened after the Israeli military aggression on the Gaza Strip in 2008, and diplomatic relations deteriorated to the point of estrangement further in the wake of the Israeli navy's opposition to the Freedom Flotilla “Mavi Marmara”, in May 2010, when the Israeli commando killed ten Turkish activists.

The report, which was submitted to decision makers in the Israeli establishment, at a time of increased Israeli incitement against Turkey, allegedly because of its penetration of influence in the Middle East and economic waters in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as strengthening its influence and presence in Jerusalem and the Palestinian interior by funding associations and supporting partnership and cooperation with Palestinians 48.

Workshops discussing Turkish-Israeli relations for Mitvim, which specializes in foreign policy for Israel and the Middle East

This estimate of military intelligence includes Turkey for the first time on the lists of threats, despite the maintenance of official diplomatic relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara.

"Aman" attributed this to what he described as the increasing "hostilities" being carried out by Turkey in the Middle East and in the eastern Mediterranean, and the modification of the maritime economic borders with Libya.

Military Intelligence did not specify in its estimates the nature, quality and content of the threat Turkey poses to Israeli national security, but said that "the policies pursued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose Islamist party allied with the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East, were behind Israeli concern, as it made These practices and policies Turkey is one of the biggest regional risks that must be monitored and monitored. "

Intelligence assessments suggested that these issues and the threats they bear are not rooted in the mentality of Ankara and the future Israeli view of Turkey, but are summed up in the person of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who issues anti-Israel statements, adopts a solidarity approach with the Palestinian people, and permits Palestinian factions to operate freely in his country, and accordingly Military Intelligence estimates that these threats will not persist after his departure from office.

Jorn: Israel was interested in maintaining a dialogue channel with Turkey

Threat and estimates
The threat is not confined to the seas, but also within historical Palestine, as the warning about the flow of Turkish money to the 48 Palestinians is through dozens of associations in Jerusalem and the Palestinian interior, which are active in the Islamic call and the care of sacred and hidden families, and the restoration of monuments and landmarks built during the Ottoman era, such as a building The Turkish ruler in Jaffa, the buildings of the Ottoman administration and the Great Mosque of Beersheba.

Turkey provided a copy of the Ottoman archives to the Palestinian Authority, which includes tens of thousands of real estate registration documents in the lands of the Ottoman Empire, which may in the long run hamper Israel's ability to continue to control the properties of Palestinian refugees.

Israeli intelligence estimates see any Turkish military presence or activity in Syria as a threat to its strategic interests, and the signing of the Maritime Boundary Agreement from Turkey and Libya violates the rights of the allies in Cyprus and Athens.

Turkish activity constitutes a threat to freedom of navigation, maritime trade and Israeli interests, and the Israeli East Med pipeline project to transfer natural gas from the Mediterranean to Europe faces challenges and obstacles that may prevent its completion. Note that Ankara has proposed the construction of a gas pipeline to Libya.

Warnings and support
Despite these warnings and assessments about Turkish policies and their threat to national security and regional interests, the director of the Israeli Institute, "Mitvim", who specializes in foreign policy for Israel and the Middle East, Nimrod Gorn, believes that the foreign policy of Tel Aviv, which has been building alliances in the eastern Mediterranean basin specifically on the energy issue And gas; it was interested in maintaining an open dialogue and communication channel with Turkey.

Jorn told Al-Jazeera Net that Israel continued to establish and deepen its cooperation with Cyprus, Greece and Egypt in the eastern Mediterranean basin, and also by participating in the Mediterranean Gas Forum, which was established in early 2019 in Cairo. Pointing out that Turkey's increasing isolation in the region and its results have started to negatively affect Israeli regional policy.

He stressed that Israel, which has supported Greece and Cyprus in a growing way in their maritime disputes with Ankara, has maintained at the same time a channel of communication with Turkey, despite tensions over the Palestinian issue, especially over Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip and Hamas's activity in Turkey.

Despite the escalation of tension between Tel Aviv and Ankara, the specialist in foreign policies of Israel and the Middle East believes that this did not reach the point that Turkey threatens Israeli national security, and believes that its inclusion in the list of threats may be in an attempt to send a firm message to Turkey in an attempt to contain the crisis between the two countries.

For his part, Eyal Vinco, a reserve officer with the Navy and Intelligence Corps, believes that these estimates are mutual between Tel Aviv and Ankara, which also lives in concern about the cooperation and agreements signed between Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus regarding the economic water borders of countries. And America's support for such cooperation and agreements.

In practice, the Israeli researcher says, "Turkey created in the eastern Mediterranean a buffer zone between Israel and Europe, which created a situation where all the ships required to sail between Israel and Europe pass through Turkish territory, where a sovereign Turkey in this region can delay, interrogate and stop ships. And even search it, and Israel will be held hostage to the Turkish decision. "

Israel considered that the penetration of Turkish influence in Jerusalem and the Palestinian interior is carried out through associations to finance advocacy activities (Al Jazeera)

Conflict status
Israel's economy and independence depend on the sea. About 99% of trade to and from Israel makes its way across the sea, which means, according to the Israeli researcher, that "Turkey can - albeit theoretically - disrupt maritime trade from the State of Israel to Europe and America, as well as transfer Israeli gas via the pipeline." Sea to Europe. "

It is likely that Turkish naval operations could harm the Israeli economy, increase the costs of Israeli maritime trade, and could create a state of conflict not only between its navy and Egypt or Greece, but also between Turkish and Israeli ships. He said, "Such a situation could lead to a political escalation, and may be military between the two countries, although the possibility is weak."