Paris (AFP)

Paris, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille ...: the major cities of France are shaping up to be the main hotspots for the 2020 municipal elections.

Paris, an armchair for ten

In Paris, eyes are now on the outgoing mayor, Anne Hidalgo, who must announce her candidacy for his succession by the end of the week. In a campaign that all experts announce "lightning", its main challengers are Rachida Dati (LR), the candidate invested by LREM Benjamin Griveaux, the dissident Cédric Villani and the ecologist David Belliard.

With no less than ten candidates in the running, and uncertainty over the position of outgoing mayors in certain right-wing districts, the political offer remains "fragmented", according to Ifop's deputy director general, Frédéric Dabi. And, the attempts of alliance with unlabeled candidates like the ex-communication manager of François Hollande, Gaspard Gantzer, and the elected center-right, Pierre-Yves Bournazel, or the creation of a front axis the first round around a "climate coalition" proposed by the candidate of EELV to Cédric Villani, have so far been unsuccessful. All in all, "there is an uncertainty never seen two months before the election," said Frédéric Dabi.

Close match in Bordeaux to succeed Juppé

Designated successor of Alain Juppé, Nicolas Florian (LR) could encounter more difficulties than expected to keep the mayor's chair, pushed to a second round by local Greens intoxicated since their 21.54% in the Europeans.

Alain Juppé's 60.95% in the first round in 2014 is a thing of the past. No poll conducted to date sees Mr. Florian escape the second round and two give him close behind by the environmentalist Pierre Hurmic, allied to the left: 32.5% -30.5% and 33% -30%. Triangular or rallying, Thomas Cazenave, invested by LREM to the chagrin of MoDem, Florian's ally in the municipal majority, would then be in the position of arbitrator. In an embellished Bordeaux, but also more expensive and threatened with overheating, where the anger of the "yellow vests" overflowed, all the candidates are storming initiatives to oxygenate, green and make the city more accessible.

Aubry to keep Lille on the left?

Will the belfry, a socialist stronghold for ages, remain on the left? After a false suspense, Martine Aubry, at the head of the city since 2001, announced her candidacy for a fourth term, in a delicate context for the PS who has lost almost everything in the region.

She is challenged by her former cabinet director, Violette Spillebout, who won the LREM nomination. LR chose former Minister Marc-Philippe Daubresse, challenged by the municipal right, who nominated his own candidate. We must also count on LFI, very present on the ground and strong of its two Lille deputies, Adrien Quatennens and Ugo Bernalicis. Without forgetting the environmentalists, who want to repeat their European performance (21.7%). Their relations with Martine Aubry are fresh and their score on the evening of the first round will be one of the keys to the ballot. The Rassemblement national also hopes to cross the 10% mark.

Marseille: who for after Gaudin?

After a quarter of a century at the helm of the second largest city in France, Jean-Claude Gaudin (LR) leaves behind a fragmented political landscape, with a divided right and the far right in ambush.

On the Republicans side, the official heiress is Martine Vassal, president of the metropolis and of the department. But Senator Bruno Gilles, former LR boss of the department, has seceded and intends to go "to the end". For the RN, Senator Stéphane Ravier is certain to qualify for the second round in the eight sectors of the city and dreams of triangular, even quadrangular, to win the town hall.

Supported by LREM, Yvon Berland, ex-president of the University of Aix-Marseille, dreams of a "progressive arc". But the senator Samia Ghali, breaking with the PS, also imagines herself as a "Madonna" unifier. As for Sébastien Barles (EELV), he started, tired of waiting for a hypothetical alliance on the left. Environmentalist Michèle Rubirola has finally been named head of the Printemps Marseillais list, a union list from the left ranging from the PS to the rebels.

Lyon, the divided macronists

The push of the Greens upset the game in Lyon, where the macronist majority is divided and the lists likely to reach the second round multiple. Local specificity, voters will have to cast two ballots: one to choose the president of the metropolis, the other to choose their mayor.

The emblematic mayor of the city Gérard Collomb has chosen to focus on the metropolis, the real seat of power in Lyon. If he remains at the head of the voting intentions, the gap is reduced with the ecologist Bruno Bernard. The lists led by François-Noël Buffet (LR), the current president of the metropolis David Kimelfeld (from macronism) and the former rebellious Andrea Kotarac (RN) are credited with more than 10%. The outcome of the metropolitan areas is made even more uncertain by the fact that the election is contested in 14 constituencies with clear sociological profiles. If its overall score should remain modest, the RN can harbor some hope in a riding like that of Givors. There will therefore certainly be a third round, with hard negotiations to the key, to elect the president of the metropolis.

In Lyon city, the situation is even tighter, the polls placing the green candidate Grégory Doucet slightly in the lead. Especially since the right, led by number two in the Etienne Blanc region, resists it better than in mainland France. The gymnast Yann Cucherat, dubbed by Gérard Collomb, finds himself opposite Georges Képénékian who occupied the mayor's chair when Collomb officiated at Place Beauvau.

Perpignan in the viewfinder of the RN

With its 122,000 inhabitants, Perpignan is the largest city coveted by the National Rally. At the helm, the deputy of the Pyrenees Orientales and ex-companion of Marine Le Pen, Louis Aliot, 50, will try to transform his two tests of 2008 and 2014. Posing as a model the Béziers of Robert Ménard, he presents himself without label, face to the outgoing LR mayor, Jean-Marc Pujol, 70, who had won in 2014 only thanks to the withdrawal of the socialist candidate. Mr. Pujol is this time challenged by two of his former assistants, including Romain Grau, 45. This LREM deputy of the department and ex-comrade of Emmanuel Macron's promotion at the ENA already advances the scenario of a "republican front" in the second round. Leader of the left, the ecologist Agnès Langevine joins him on this topic, at the head of a list gathering greens, socialists, radicals of the left, but not LFI, which joined the list of Jean-Bernard Mathon also supported by the PCF and NPA.

It is shaking up in Grenoble

Last straight line tight in Grenoble, where behind Éric Piolle (EELV-FG), who is running for a second consecutive mandate with the support of a part of the left, the other candidates discover themselves. In mid-December the outgoing mayor came out on top of a poll before his main competitor Alain Carignon (DVD), but Olivier Noblecourt, former deputy mayor PS Michel Destot (1995-2014), has since formalized his candidacy. An advertisement which reshuffles the cards of a campaign where the deputy LREM Emilie Chalas struggles to be heard. On the right, the horizon remains blocked for the Republicans, still without a nominated candidate, as for the far right, which will present two lists: one invested by the RN and the other dissident.

© 2020 AFP