After the “witch hunt”: why did Trump talk about the need to develop trade relations with Russia

US President Donald Trump called for the development of trade relations with Russia.

“I think we should be able to trade with Russia. I believe that we can get along with Russia after the witch hunt ... is over and they (investigators. - RT ) spent $ 45 million and found nothing, ”he said on Fox news.

The President of the United States, in particular, compared with the “witch-hunt”, the investigation of special prosecutor Robert Muller, which was to establish whether Trump’s election headquarters in 2016 was connected with Russia. Mueller’s commission found that this connection was not, and therefore, there is no reason for impeachment of the head of state.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also announced the need to build relations with Russia. On his Twitter, he commented on the swearing-in of the new United States Ambassador to Russia, John Sullivan.

“John is undoubtedly a suitable candidate for this important post at the US Embassy in Moscow at a time when we are striving for constructive and productive relations with the Russian Federation,” said Pompeo.

Thrilled to swear in John Sullivan as our new Ambassador to #Russia. John is undoubtedly the right person to join @USEmbRu for this critical job as we seek a constructive and productive relationship with the Russian Federation. pic.twitter.com/hbOZdcteMu

Turnover is growing

Claiming the need to intensify contacts with Russia, Trump “remains true to himself,” said Alexander Domrin, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics, in an interview with RT.

“I don’t know another American president who would be so attentive to his election promises. Trump in 2016 promised his voters to get along with Russia. Here he reminds the Americans that, despite all the machinations of the Democrats, he did not forget about his words, ”says the expert.

It is no coincidence that Trump called trade exactly the sphere where the expansion of cooperation between the two countries is possible, analysts say. They remind that the economic relations between Russia and the United States in recent years cannot be unambiguously described as confrontational or positively developing.

• Mike Pompeo
• Reuters
• © Erin Scott

On the one hand, the United States not only does not ease the sanction pressure on the Russian Federation, but also introduces new sanctions. For example, Washington has consistently opposed the laying of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to the EU countries. Although the sanctions imposed by the Americans last year in connection with this project are belated and cannot prevent the completion of construction, the fact of their introduction is noteworthy, experts say.

At the same time, despite the sanction pressure, trade relations between the two countries have been developing in recent years. So, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2017, trade between Russia and the United States amounted to $ 23 billion, and in 2018 - already $ 25 billion. The agency has not yet published the final figures for the past year, but there are data for the first ten months. In January-October 2019, trade between the two countries amounted to $ 21.6 billion. For comparison: in January-October 2018, this figure was $ 20.6 billion. The situation with US imports is changing. If in 2018 it fell by 0.5%, then in January-October 2019, on the contrary, it grew by 4.5% compared to the same period the year before last.

True, a comparison of statistics with other trading partners of the Russian Federation still demonstrates the presence of a large development resource in the economic relations of the two countries, analysts say. So, with China for 2017-2018. Russian trade grew by 24.5% (from $ 86 billion to $ 108 billion), with Germany - by 19.5% (from $ 49.9 billion to $ 59.7 billion), with the Netherlands - by 19.3% (from $ 39, 5 to $ 47.1 billion).

“The paradox of the situation is that under Trump, despite the sanctions, the trade turnover of the two countries is growing. However, it is still scanty compared to the potential that Moscow and Washington can realize. It is clear that there are prospects for developing economic contacts between the Russian Federation and the USA, but there is no desire for the American business elite to invest in Russia. And here the reasons are no longer economic, but political, ”said Konstantin Blokhin, an expert at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RT.

For a second term

According to Domrin, speaking about the need to develop trade relations with the Russian Federation, Trump gives a signal in which direction he intends to develop contacts with Russia in the event of his re-election. Recall that the presidential election in the United States will be held in November this year.

• AFP
• © Mladen ANTONOV

“Trump’s statement is encouraging. Yes, it is an election. Yes, it can be seen as a kind of trolling of opponents from the Democratic Party, who still accuse him of being an “agent of Moscow”. But it is also a reminder to the president’s electorate that Russia is not an existential enemy of the United States. We need to get along with Russia because it’s a great power and because working with it is beneficial for the Americans, ”says Domrin.

At the same time, experts emphasize that the issue of normalizing interstate relations in the United States depends not only on the position of the head of state.

Blokhin notes that Trump's opinion on this issue does not coincide with the ideas of the political and economic elite of the United States.

“The main opponent of the United States in the understanding of trump is China. Therefore, becoming president, he wanted to maximize relations with Russia and worsen relations with China. But the American elite believes that America’s capabilities are unlimited, that it is capable of holding back Russia, China, Iran, the DPRK, and half the world at the same time, ”Blokhin believes.

If Trump is reelected, the American establishment will continue to actively impede the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States, the expert said.

“We can talk about scenarios for improving Russian-American relations only in two cases: if there are any changes in the American elite or if the US and the West face a very serious problem that they cannot solve alone, as was, say, in the years Second World War. Both options are not yet visible. Therefore, I would not expect rapprochement between Moscow and Washington in the short and even medium term, ”Blokhin concludes.