The first explanation for the plane crash outside Tehran at the beginning of the week came from Iranian state media, which said an early investigation showed the crash was due to a motor failure. Several turned to this, according to several premature conclusions. Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia are now accusing Iran of shooting down the aircraft - probably by mistake.
A video that is said to show how a rocket is fired and hits the aircraft was published during Thursday evening Swedish time by the New York Times, which together with the research network Bellingcat believes to be genuine. The clip shows how something that looks like an airplane is hit by a brilliant object - ten seconds later an explosion is heard.
Decisions made in a hurryAndreas Hörnedal at the Department of Defense and Security Systems at the Swedish Defense Research Institute, FOI, has now reviewed the video. If the video shows what is alleged to be the plane being shot down by an air defense robot, then he thinks the decision was made quickly.
- It is quite possible that they had to draw conclusions based on what they see on their own radar, says Andreas Hörnedal.
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- It is quite possible that conclusions have been drawn from radar images, says Andreas Hörnedal, Department of Defense and Security Systems FOI. Blink on the radarRegardless of the reason behind the decision, the course of events goes too fast to undo a situation when a robot has been fired, according to him.
- They may have just seen a rapid flick on the radar and then made a quick and incorrect decision, says Andreas Hörnedal.