Paris (AFP)

Two years before the presidential election, the municipal elections of March 15 and 22 will be a test of the state of the country after months of social crisis. However, the poll should not upset the political landscape.

The candidates have until February 27 to declare themselves and the negotiations are accelerating two months before the election to constitute the lists in the 35,000 municipalities.

Where are the mayors?

More than two out of three French people have confidence in their mayors, who remain the most appreciated by the elect, according to recent surveys. Consequently, the outgoing premium is very high in municipal elections. Mayors have been put back into the political game by the crisis of "yellow vests" and less than 30% of them do not wish to run again in March, according to Cevipof (Sciences Po), despite the difficulties of the function.

What is at stake for Macron and LREM?

The Head of State invested in the preparation of the ballot and a hypothetical victory in a big city - Paris, Marseille ... - would confirm the good performance of the Republic in March at the Europeans in 2019. But the social climate is hardly in favor of his support on the ground. Unlike the previous five years, voters can hardly take over the municipal authorities to sanction the power in place, LREM being only very weakly established locally. The macronists have limited their ambitions and are counting on the gain of ten thousand municipal councilors, out of around 500,000. "They did not speak of a number of cities but of elected municipal officials. This shows that the objectives are very low," notes Bruno Jeanbart of the OpinionWay institute. A significant number of elected officials would however allow them to prepare the next move, the senatorials of September, before the departmental and regional ones in 2021.

What about oppositions?

Swept to European (8.5%), The Republicans must show that they still have a local base. They will try to keep their strongholds - Marseille, Bordeaux, Toulouse ... - and the maximum of the 70 cities of more than 30,000 inhabitants taken to the left in 2014. But many leavers avoid displaying the LR label and the party must stem the flight of its "Macron-compatible" elected officials towards LREM.

An equally crucial vote for the PS. Inaudible at the national level, the party makes the municipal one a major stake and intends to defend its positions in the cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants which it controls, Paris of course, but also Lille, Rennes, Nantes ..., and gather on the left in the smaller ones.

With their good European score (13.5%), EELV environmentalists are counting on a good 2020 vintage and claiming leadership on the left. The ecological transition is in any case promising, now on the program of candidates from all walks of life.

The PCF, which still owns around twenty cities with more than 30,000 inhabitants, also wants to rally to the left. But municipal communism crumbles with each election. And LFI is back on this ballot.

At the head of a dozen cities since 2014, the Rassemblement national is betting on social discontent to strengthen its presence. But the municipal ones are a difficult ballot for the RN, lack of allies to constitute majorities.

Whose big cities?

In a largely depoliticized ballot, the results in a few symbolic cities will determine the success or failure of the main parties. In addition to Paris, Lyon, Marseille, where the lists are formed in pain, the battle promises to be tough to preserve or conquer Bordeaux, Lille, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Grenoble or Le Havre, of which Edouard Philippe was the mayor until 2017. So many cities synonymous with standards for those who prevail, even if the candidates have so far rather tended to put their political label in their pocket.

What impact did the strike have on the elections?

The strike against the pension reform has already had the effect of shortening the electoral campaign. This rather favors leavers, who do not need to make themselves known to voters. "A priori, it does not strengthen power, it rather tends to radicalize oppositions," notes Bruno Jeanbart. The impact will be all the more noticeable if the movement were to continue beyond January and further obscure the campaign.

What do French people expect from municipal governments?

Far from partisan quarrels, "the main expectation with regard to the mayor is that he defends the interests of the commune", summarizes Frédéric Dabi, deputy director general of Ifop. Elected by proximity par excellence, the mayor is seen as a protector to whom the inhabitants turn in priority. A need for protection in the broad sense, which includes the safety of goods and people, the environment, or even access to health services. The campaign that is announced will therefore touch on the most concrete, the fight against nuisances, the hassles of everyday life, the defense of the living environment or local services.

© 2020 AFP