Stratfor and Times: This is the long breath game that Iran wants

Two prominent western media have agreed that Iran will not abandon its conflict with the United States, and will pursue a long-term policy to expel it from the Middle East.

If the Iranian regime has had one fixed goal since 1979, it is survival, if the Iranian Stratfor website, which specializes in geopolitical intelligence, said. This system was mainly present in the crisis management situation, whether it was fighting Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war or overcoming the recent US sanctions.

Today, there are two interrelated issues that Iran considers necessary for its long-term survival: its economic health and its regional strategy in Iraq and the Levant, according to the site.

And he added that Iran had no choice but to publicly respond to the US decision to kill the commander of the Qods Force in the Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, but he is now likely to return to the "calculated brink" strategy instead of direct attacks on American forces.

A comprehensive long-term game
The site added that Iran's response was limited because it did not want its revenge to disrupt its comprehensive long-term game in the Middle East.

He added that Iran finds itself between two difficult situations to achieve a balance between them: the need to continue its "aggressive" regional strategy to confront the United States, and the need to finally reduce sanctions from Washington.

He made it clear that Tehran would seek to undermine US relations with Iraq as the first stage of the eventual withdrawal of US forces from the region, so it would try to keep the conflict confined to its current theaters, such as Iraq.

Given that the Iraqi militias backed by Iran have promised their own response to the Soleimani process, and that Iraqi politicians backed by Iran are strongly committed to expelling US forces from the country, this will most likely be translated into more violence and escalation in Iraq, and possibly elsewhere nearby.

Tehran's dilemma
The site did not rule out that the two Iranian priorities - that is, the need to lift US economic sanctions and maintain its influence in the region - place Tehran in a dilemma, and it is likely that Iran currently chooses to alleviate its harsh economic situation by submitting to the demands of the United States and withdrawing from the broader Middle East.

However, the site goes back to saying that the limited Iranian response to the assassination of Soleimani suggests that it is determined to continue its path in a strategy in which continued pressure on Washington throughout the Middle East is pushing America to ease restrictions on the Iranian economy.

He explained that this likely Iranian pressure on America will be through Tehran's allies and regional proxies, so that Iran can maintain a reasonable denial of any attacks that harm American interests as part of its attempt to undermine American relations with countries like Iraq.

The importance of reducing sanctions
Stratfor said that it is almost certain that Iran does not want to provoke war with America now or in the near future, but if Washington does not ease its economic sanctions on Iran, Tehran and its allies will cause a great cost to America and its allies and their common interests in the Middle East.

In the same context, the British newspaper "Times" says that the Iranian missile response to the killing of Soleimani indicates that Iran will fight on other fronts, describing this response as a theatrical attempt to settle accounts with America.

The newspaper added that the Iranian conflict with America has not ended yet, but that it will be carried out by Iran without direct confrontation, pointing out that the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ali Khamenei, expressed this when he said, "What is important in addition to revenge is to end the corrupt presence of the United States in the region."

The Times continued that Iran would not be satisfied until the United States and all Western countries withdrew its forces from the Middle East. To this end, Iran intends to deploy the "puppet armies" that Soleimani recruited and trained across the region, and the main battlefield will be Iraq. Under the guise of revenge for Soleimani’s death, Iran intends to raise the political cost of remaining in its neighborhood.