Paris (AFP)

After four years of increases, French housing prices should continue to rise this year, according to the main agency networks, which believe that uncertainties around pensions could further fuel demand for real estate.

"We have never seen a sale price for apartments or houses at such a high level in France," said Laurent Vimont, president of the French antenna of Century 21, on Monday. "This is a new record."

Among the almost 900 agencies of the second French network, the average price of apartments sold increased in 2019 by 3.1% to 3,639 euros per square meter, and that of houses by 1% to 2,106 euros per m2.

The situation is similar for the other large networks. Apartments and houses combined, they all report an increase in prices: + 1.5% at Orpi (first network with 1,250 agencies), + 3.2% at Laforêt (around 700 agencies), + 3% at Address (335 branches).

All of them recorded a jump in the number of sales in 2019, around 10%.

These assessments are very fragmentary and it will be necessary to wait until the end of February for the figures of notaries to have more complete data. But the networks give a first idea of ​​the state of the market.

This should not change in 2020, as prices come out of their fourth year of increase: the supply of housing remains below demand, especially since construction has slowed for two years, and projects for The purchases are fueled by historically favorable credit conditions, with rates that have never been lower.

"The forecast is that prices will increase slightly in 2020: we will say (by) 2%," said Mr. Vimont, expecting, however, a stabilization in the number of sales which has exceeded for the first time. last year the million mark in France. "It will be a miracle if we make more than a million sales in 2020," he warned.

- Refuge placement -

Its competitors also expect prices to rise moderately. More generally, their speeches have hardly changed in the past year, reflecting a context that changes little.

Admittedly, the financial authorities took the end of 2019 a first step to limit the surge in mortgage loans, in particular by calling on banks to avoid lending for more than 25 years. But these measures, for the moment purely incentive, do not seem able to upset the market.

There is all the same a new element to take into account: the governmental plan of reform of the pensions, at the origin of a social mobilization with the duration without precedent in France.

Networks see this as good news for the market, when they feared a year ago the consequences of the movement of "yellow vests", ultimately painless for agencies. This time, they consider that real estate appears to be a refuge, especially for the youngest.

"The combination of low rates and a certain anxiety linked to their future pensions encourages young people to invest earlier to build wealth," said Christine Fumagalli, president of Orpi, quoted in a press release.

This picture of a buoyant market must also be put into perspective by contrasting situations across France with, as the first symbol, the rise in Parisian prices which remains far above average - they have for the first time exceeded last year 10,000 euros per square meter.

Beyond a simplistic opposition between Paris and the province, the contrast is especially marked between tense areas - where the supply is the most insufficient, most often in large cities - and relaxed.

At Orpi, prices thus remained stable in the relaxed areas only (-0.2%), even if the network notes a renewed interest in these from buyers ready to assume a reasonable transport time .

"Even rural areas, + shunned + a few years ago, are benefiting from prices that have only progressed little and regain their attractiveness," added Yann Jéhanno, president of Laforêt, quoted in a press release.

© 2020 AFP