Between the merchant's mentality and strategic calculations .. American estimates of the cost of leaving Iraq

Mohammed Al-Minshawi-Washington

The American capital Washington is witnessing a wide debate about the future of the military presence in Iraq after the Iraqi government called for the departure of foreign forces from the country against the backdrop of the implications of the assassination of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guard.

Calais Thomas, an expert at the New American National Security Institute, said President Donald Trump's attempt "to threaten the Iraqi government will not have a good resonance inside Iraq."

On Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Iraq and its leaders, Calais told Al-Jazeera Net, "Although the Trump administration prefers to use the sanctions weapon, he may not be able to go to this extent as the use of sanctions against Iraq would seriously harm the future of relations between the two countries."

As for David de Roche, the military expert at the Center for Near East and South Asia at the US National Defense University, he believes that Trump "wants to withdraw troops from Iraq, but he does not want to appear as someone who was forced to do so at present under pressure from the Iraqi parliament and government."

On Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Iraq, de Roche told Al Jazeera Net that this threat "is based on financial cost calculations and not from strategic accounts."

He explained that the United States "built the air base there in order to fight the Islamic State with the money of American taxpayers, and Trump does not imagine that money can be built and spent on the base and then leave and leave. Trump wants to withdraw as soon as the threats of threats from there disappear."

De Roche does not agree with the hypothesis that there is a strong desire to get American forces out of Iraq, saying, "Washington has often been advised by Iraqi politicians that the demands for withdrawal are left behind by Shiite parliamentary groups loyal to Iran. If American forces withdraw, Iraq will know chaos again."

Estimates vary
For his part, former US ambassador to Iraq Robert Ford expressed his understanding of the anger of Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi and his senior military officials after the assassination of Soleimani, the leader of the Iraqi Hezbollah and the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Committee, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

He pointed out that such an attack "constitutes a flagrant violation of the bilateral agreement organizing the US military presence in Iraq, whose tasks revolve around supporting the building of the Iraqi army and assisting it in the war against ISIS."

The ambassador believes that the failure to implement the parliament’s decision that US forces should be removed "may provide a justification for some militant militias to attack and retaliate against the United States," noting that the coming days will reveal the cost of the Trump administration's refusal to comply with the growing Iraqi demands to demand the departure of American forces.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Charles Dunn, a former intelligence official and researcher at the Middle East Institute, considered that "the mood of President Trump is an essential factor in his decisions, which led to the deterioration of relations between Washington and Baghdad against his background, his threats and his refusal to withdraw, which is in Iran's interest in The end".

"In the event that the Iraqi government formally requests the withdrawal of American forces in accordance with the 2014 agreement, and again, Washington will find itself as an occupying power if it does not withdraw, and this may push to increase the threats of radical groups against the American presence in Iraq," Dan said.

Contrary to previous opinions, Stephen Hadley, former National Security Adviser under President George W. Bush - in an article for The Washington Post - said that if the Iraqi government pushed the US forces out "it would have fallen into a trap set by the militia of the Hezbollah Brigades."

Hadley believes that the withdrawal of his country's forces from Iraq would "strengthen the Iranian-backed PMF, weaken the central government, damage the sovereignty and prestige of the Iraqi state, and it will do great harm to efforts to counteract the remnants of ISIS."

He believes that the issue of withdrawing American forces will not receive "wide acceptance by the Sunnis and the Iraqi Kurds, nor between Washington's allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, who support the Baghdad government to balance Iranian influence inside the country."

Trump's background as a businessman and real estate trader is prompted to look at the cost of his country building military bases in Iraq with considerations of material gain and loss.

Among the differing opinions, it remains that the most important thing that will govern the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is Trump's political interest and gains from this move, should it occur. Dan says Trump "wants to appear as someone who has fulfilled his electoral promise to withdraw from the Middle East."