Soleimani's assassination interacts in Israel ... security concerns and political benefits

Muhammad Mohsen Wedd - occupied Jerusalem

Analysts and researchers in Israel concluded that Iran is not concerned with a comprehensive confrontation and war with America and its allies in the Middle East in response to the assassination of the Quds Force commander, Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, and they agreed that they would be content with revenge against American, Israeli and perhaps Saudi targets.

Israeli analysts played down the seriousness and severity of the threats issued by the Iranians, and suggested that the circle of revenge in the first stage would be limited to American targets in the Iraqi arena, while they ruled out that Israel would be within the circle of direct war with Tehran, but they confirmed that Israeli targets will be in the future in the circle of revenge.

In light of the Iranian threats and the hint of revenge against America's allies in the Middle East, led by Israel, the Tel Aviv government and the security, military and intelligence services held a consultation session, the second since Soleimani's assassination.

The Israeli establishment declined to disclose the content of the sessions, only to announce maintaining the state of alert, and to reinforce the guard around Israeli embassies and diplomats around the world.

And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kept the secrecy and secrecy of the contents of the consultations session held on Sunday by the Mini Ministerial Council for Political and Security Affairs, during which discussion and evaluation of local and regional security situations after the killing of Soleimani.

To avoid any Israeli statements that would be provocative to Iran, Netanyahu merely praised and appreciated US President Donald Trump, saying, "I would like to make clear once again that Israel fully stands by the United States in its just struggle that aims to achieve safety and peace and exercise the right of self-defense." .

Bet and scenarios
Military analyst Amos Harel believes that America has wagered on all cards in the assassination of Soleimani, which is a bet that proves another step on the path to war and confrontation with Iran, where Israel contributed in the last year to the exacerbation of friction between the Iranian and American forces in a series of air strikes it attributed to the militias. Pro-Tehran in western Iraq, some in eastern Syria.

Harel believes that the violent Iranian response will inevitably come, and it may take a long time to extend across many squares and squares in the Middle East and around the world, adding that the assassination process brings the United States and Iran closer to a war that the two countries do not want, knowing that a direct clash between Washington and Tehran could It also leads to the involvement of Israel.

On the options and scenarios of the Iranian response to the assassination of Soleimani, the military analyst estimates that the initial and primary response at this stage will be through targeting American targets in Iraq, but it does not exclude the possibility that Saudi targets will be in the range of Iranian fire. The question that worries Tel Aviv remains: Will Tehran inject Israeli targets into retaliatory attacks?

Harel ruled out at this point the outbreak of direct war between Israel and Iran, but asserts that the Iranian retaliation will reach Israeli targets that do not constitute a provocation to Tel Aviv, to which Tehran will direct accusations and direct involvement in the assassination of Soleimani, in order to justify reprisals against the Israeli army in the occupied Syrian Golan , Carried out by armed militias.

Obsessions and challenges
Between concerns and challenges, Israel breathed a sigh of relief in the absence of Soleimani on the map of the Middle East. The director of the "Moshe Dayan" Center for Strategic Studies, Eyal Zisser, attributed this Israeli joy to the position and role of Soleimani in expanding Iranian influence in the region.

"Every big and small step of Iran's envoys and proxies in the Middle East needed Soleimani's approval, and he was also the creative thinker of many of these moves, and therefore it will be difficult to fill the void and space left by Soleimani who was characterized by boldness, sophistication, charisma and experience," Zisser said.

There is no doubt, according to Zayser, that "the killing of Soleimani will have a negative effect of the degree of paralysis of the activities and movements of armed militias loyal to Iran, and will hinder the Iranian military position in Syria that Israel is fighting."

He added that "Iran and the allies of the armed militias and Hezbollah are not concerned with an all-out war against America and its allies in the Middle East, because they are convinced that this war will not serve them in anything, so they will try through reprisals not to cross the red lines that would trigger an all-out war in Region".

Netanyahu and Suleimani
Far from the threats, challenges, and complications of the scene in Iraq and the American-Iranian tension, the assassination of Soleimani casts a shadow over the electoral scene in Israel, and will put Netanyahu again in the circle of attention despite the corruption files that are chasing him, and this may contribute to enabling Netanyahu to form the next government, according to the editor of political affairs in Haaretz newspaper, Aluf Bin.

Aluf Bin pointed out that Iran, which threatens revenge and everyone is watching the size of its expected strike, is well aware that the balance of power is not in its favor, explaining that Tehran may find a way to respond, but it has no way to harm the United States, and it is completely at risk of American military capabilities that It could destroy the nuclear and oil industry and undermine the system.

On the Israeli side, despite the threats and concerns about an Iranian response and challenges in Syria and on the Lebanese and Gaza fronts after the assassination of Soleimani, the Political Affairs Editor believes that the biggest winner of the assassination is Netanyahu, who is facing three indictments of corruption threatening his political career, as the assassination missed Netanyahu's corruption files and the controversy surrounding it. He also restored the challenges and security conditions to the debate in the political scene and the campaign for the parliamentary elections to be held next March.

It is estimated that Netanyahu will take advantage of Soleimani’s assassination and use him in his election campaign by diverting attention from corruption and judicial immunity files and brandishing Iranian threats, adding that the formation of a right-wing government headed by him depends on his success in maintaining and maintaining the security agenda and the Iranian threat and threat on the agenda and attention of the Israeli community until the fund is resolved In the Knesset elections.