Experts: The assassination of Soleimani may change the internal scene in Iran

The killing of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, with an American strike, presents an opportunity for Iran and the conservatives in the country to benefit from the scene internally, after two months of demonstrations interspersed with criticism of foreign policy, and the authorities violently suppressed them.

The assassination of the engineer of the Iranian foreign operations in Baghdad with a US march plane on Friday night, sparked a wave of influence in the country that the Iranian authorities will not hesitate to exploit.

As for former diplomat and American analyst Aaron Miller, "the killing of Soleimani, who is equal to an American chief of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and director of Special Operations Command combined, means that the United States has eliminated the second most powerful figure in Iran."

The killing of Soleimani, who has been described by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei as a "living martyr," allows Tehran to invest his name.

But the former French ambassador to Tehran, Francois Niccolo, sees that there is "an opportunity" currently before the authorities in Iran "to divert American strikes off the track, not for a long time, but feelings of public impression will remain," adding that Soleimani "was representing the beautiful image of the soldier in the Iranian imagination." .

Soleimani is considered by many Iranians as a hero who they can count on to spare Iran the situation that Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan has suffered from.

In October, a poll by the American Institute for International and Security Studies in Maryland confirmed that Gen. Soleimani was indeed one of the most popular political figures in Iran, with support from eight of every ten Iranians surveyed.

Deep anger
The killing of General Soleimani could also lead Tehran to fall into a defensive position.

"It is almost guaranteed that the Iranian parliament will be in the hands of the most militant elements in Iran" after the legislative elections in February, against the backdrop of intense public tension, said Ali Fayez, an official in the International Crisis Group, in a tweet on Twitter.

Demonstrations that erupted on November 15 in the country included hundreds of Iranian cities, after announcing a significant increase in gasoline prices in light of a severe economic crisis.

Days later, the authorities announced that they had succeeded in restoring calm to the country, but did not give a death toll, while Amnesty International reported that 300 people had been killed and thousands arrested.

Under pressure from Iranian sanctions, the value of the local currency, the riyal, has deteriorated, as has inflation. According to recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund, Iran's GDP in 2019 decreased by 9.5%.

In December, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani presented a "budget to counter" US sanctions.

"Popular complaints that led to the demonstrations remain. The system can take advantage of (the general's death) to continue to suppress dissent," arguing Ariane Tabtabaei of the American Research Institute in an interview with the French press.

The analyst believes that, despite everything, Suleimani had two contradictory images, the image of the country's hero defender "prevailing among the pro-regime youth," and the image of one of the cadres of the "organization responsible for the repression and violations" in the eyes of others.

Prosperity and freedom
During the 2017 and 2018 demonstrations, as well as last December's demonstrations, some denounced the domestic price that is being paid in Iran in exchange for the regional ambitions of the regime that Soleimani personified most.

Aaron Miller notes that "millions of Iranians want more ties with the outside world, more economic prosperity, more freedom."

But the hardliners of the Iranian regime have so far chosen not to listen to those aspirations. However, the assassination of Soleimani weakens this line politically, at least in the sense that Tehran did not expect what happened.

Two days before Soleimani's assassination, Iraqi pro-Iranian demonstrators attacked the United States embassy in Baghdad, condemning American air strikes against the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, a faction in the PMF, that killed 25 people.

"You can do nothing," Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wrote on Twitter, referring to the Americans ’inability to Iran.

Francois Niccolo considered that these words reflected a "miscalculation" on the part of the Iranians, because "the United States has found a way to respond."

Experts warn that the Iranian authorities will repeat the same mistake.

"If Iran has to choose between saving the regime in Tehran and expanding its influence in the region," then the analyst Alex Fanta of the Middle East Institute in Washington believes.

He adds that Soleimani's death "does not destroy Iran's ability to expand, but the Iranian regime, during its study of how to respond to Washington, should assess all consequences."