Syria 2020: A tragedy that continues and there is no political solution on the horizon

Adnan Al-Hussein - Northern Syria

With the Syrian revolution entering its ninth year, the armed Syrian opposition lost the most prominent cities and major sites subject to it in the center and south of the country, amid continuous waves of displacement, the last of which was in the city of Idlib, which is experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe, after it was a refuge for the displaced and the displaced from all over Syria.

The official of the "Syrian Response Coordinators Team", Muhammad Hallaj, told Al-Jazeera Net that the population composition in northwestern Syria reached about 4 million and 350 thousand civilians, of whom more than one million and 200 thousand were displaced during 2019 as a result of two military campaigns by the Syrian regime forces and Russia in the Hama countryside and the Idlib countryside. 27% of the population in northwestern Syria are internally displaced as a result of escalation and military operations.

Hallaj warns that the humanitarian situation is heading for the worse as a result of the weak humanitarian response that led to major obstacles, which appeared in the deficit, which amounted to 57.1% in the United Nations plan for 2019, adding that "the continued progress of the Syrian regime forces and Russia towards major and major cities is the biggest concern." It will cause an increase in the number of displaced people, and therefore the region needs a major response, which means a major catastrophe that coincides with the winter. "

Russian targets
"The Russian role has become an active and prominent player in the Syrian conflict arena, and has been revolving since 2016 about stopping military operations, going to reconstruction and reaping the economic harvest of what it lost in Syria and pushing for a political solution consistent with its vision," said Taha Abdul Wahid, a Russian analyst.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, he adds that the economic factor of Russia is a high priority in order to reap the fruits of its participation with its striking military power, and therefore it is looking for any political solution that guarantees the survival of its land and sea bases and near-absolute control of the state, and then its acquisition of reconstruction projects for Russian companies. .

It also points to "an important and main goal for Russia despite the failure of previous attempts, which is to make Syria a file to re-launch US-Russian cooperation, which was cut since 2014 as a result of the Ukrainian crisis, and further hopes that Syria will be a gateway to hope for the completion of a new Russian-American partnership."

Despite the agreements launched by several regional countries, headed by Turkey and Russia, in laying the cornerstone for the solution in Syria, the map of control and conflict changed suddenly, especially after the withdrawal of American forces from large areas in eastern Syria, and their concentration in the locations of oil and Turkey's entry into the east of the Euphrates, followed by Russia.

Leverage map
According to the map issued by the "Bridges Center for Studies", the proportions of power control on the ground have become divided and intertwined. The opposition factions have maintained a certain degree of their control with a very slight increase, recording 12.13% with an area of ​​22645 square kilometers of the total area in Syria.

The SDF relatively maintained its control areas with a very slight decline, registering 25.64% with an area equivalent to 47,846 square kilometers of the total area in Syria, while the control of the Syrian regime forces increased to 62.23% with an area equivalent to 116,139 square kilometers of the total area in Syria, while Any ISIS military control on Syrian soil has disappeared since February.

In this regard, Major General Mohammed Haj Ali, a defector of the regime, says, "Today, Syria is completely occupied by the occupation. The areas of regime forces' control, which basically does not control anything, are subject to Russian and Iranian control, while other areas are under the control of different powers. In the north, Turkey, In what is known as the eastern Euphrates, there is Russia and America, which explains that there is no decision for the Syrians in their country or on their land at all.

On the future of military operations in Syria, Haji Ali believes that the Russia and Turkey agreement will lead to Turkey handing over the main roads to the Syrian regime and Russia, and that the military factions will be isolated within certain areas to prevent communication between them, and it is possible that an agreement will be reached between the SDF and the regime forces for deployment Full, and Turkey will be instrumental in that.

Hajj Ali summarizes the military situation that the increase in violence will be the most prominent aspect of 2020, and that Israeli military strikes on Iranian sites will increase, as will coalition strikes by militant organizations.

Although the struggle over the Syrian geography, especially after 2013, between the active forces was not purely economic in origin, with the long term, the economic factor has become an active element in the Syrian scene.

"The economic factor has become an important element, and crystallized previously in hidden economic confrontations between Russia and Iran, especially in the cement factory and ports that Russia is trying to displace Iran from, including the port of Latakia," said Osama al-Qadi, head of the "Syrian Economy Working Group" on Al-Jazeera Net.

Now the bombing of the areas adjacent to the "M4" and "M5" highways, where it is clear the intention to clear 20 km on both sides of the two highways, as a kind of preparation for safe shipping methods between Aleppo, Lattakia, Aleppo and Damascus, as part of a preliminary procedure for any future economic and commercial economic revitalization process.

The judge adds to Al-Jazeera Net: While America lies on most of the Syrian oil wealth to secure the expenses of the survival of 400 American soldiers and the necessary military bases and airports, while the Turkish side is preparing for a reconstruction process in the Euphrates Shield that includes some Arab and European countries to return some of the displaced, and this is done in coordination Among them is preparing for an apparently new stage in 2020, in preparation for a political deal that will end the Syrian disaster at any cost.

Conflict of interest
Syrian analysts and activists agree that today the Syrian people are subject to regional and international settlements and conflicts because of the curse of geography and the conflict of interests of states in this important region.

"Most of the Syrian players at the local level, whether the opposition or the regime, have lost their capabilities to influence the political equation, but have become tools in the hands of their allies in a clear and absolute way. Therefore, there is no real role for them during 2020, and any political solution depends on understandings," says journalist and political activist Khaled Abu Salah. Their allies, in which Russia and Turkey play the most prominent role.

Abu Salah continues his talk to Al-Jazeera Net "As for the international level, after the failure of the meetings of the constitutional committee, and the absence of any real international political reactions to this failure, in addition to the outbreak of direct conflict on the Mediterranean in the Libyan problem, and the entry of both Turkey and Russia - the important players on the ground The Syrian - and behind them Europe and the United States in this conflict, distracts attention from the tragedy of the Syrians, which suggests that the Syrian crisis will grow in place during the year 2020, as its solution is still far from the agendas of the conflicting countries where interests and complexity of interests increase in the entire region.