In April 2020, it will be ten years since the signing of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive weapons, better known as START III. According to the terms of the agreement, the agreements valid until February 2021 can be extended for another five years by mutual agreement of the parties. However, the United States authorities are trying in every possible way to delay the extension of the contract, despite the calls of Moscow.

So, during the December big press conference, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to “just take and extend” the current START III treaty, which is one of the key agreements in the field of global security.

“If tomorrow they send us by mail, or we are ready to sign and send to Washington, let the relevant leaders, including the president, put their signature there, if they are ready. But so far there is no answer to all our proposals, and if there is no START III, then there will be nothing at all in the world that is holding back the arms race. And this, in my opinion, is bad, ”the Russian leader emphasized.

Commenting on this appeal, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on Channel One, said that Washington no longer had any reason to refuse to extend START III and Moscow was counting on a constructive reaction from its American colleagues.

“This addition is very important, because until recently, the US in the negotiations tried to pretend that by asking some questions about how the Americans fulfill the obligations under the treaty, we are kind of hindering its smooth extension. Now this ambiguity has been removed, ”Lavrov said.

In addition, in an interview with TASS, the foreign minister noted that Russia and the United States could now extend the START Treaty.

“To calm the world community and prevent a vacuum in the field of stratability. Hopefully, Washington will take a sound and responsible approach, ”Lavrov added.

In the first half of December, the Russian Foreign Minister, during a meeting with US President Donald Trump, confirmed the proposal to extend the START Treaty until the end of 2019, adding that Moscow favors any options for extending the treaty, but this did not happen.

Earlier, in February 2019, a senior White House official told reporters that the United States is committed to “fulfilling START III,” but the American side has not yet decided to extend it.

  • Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev after signing START III
  • RIA News
  • © Dmitry Astakhov

“Press on Russia”

Despite the relevance of the issue, the American side has repeatedly made it clear that it does not exclude a situation in which the treaty will not be extended by the United States.

A similar statement was made at the end of July, who held the post of adviser to the President of the United States on national security, John Bolton, who soon resigned. According to him, START III “had shortcomings from the very beginning” and did not cover “tactical short-range nuclear weapons and new Russian delivery systems”.

Trump also criticized the treaty, calling it a failed unilateral deal for the United States, which his predecessor, Barack Obama, concluded.

According to Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, the likelihood that START III will not be extended by the United States is extremely high.

“I think the current American leadership has already made a negative decision. However, suspensive options are not ruled out - for example, Washington may extend the agreement for six months or several months, saying that the US needs time to make a decision, ”the analyst said in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, Bruter noted that, probably, Washington will not voice its position on this issue until the presidential election in the United States, which will be held in November 2020.

“If Trump loses this race and Democrats come to power, the situation will change - they will not deny the need to extend START III. However, representatives of the Democratic Party will ask dearly for this, and the question is how much this corresponds to Russian interests, ”the expert noted.

  • US President Donald Trump
  • Reuters

In turn, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Sergei Sudakov, believes that Washington is now "deliberately laying the situation that will not allow them to sign this agreement."

“The White House wants the contract not to be signed due to invented violations by Moscow, as it was organized with the INF Treaty. The United States will do everything so that the non-renewal of START III falls on Russia, ”the source said.

At the same time, Sudakov expressed confidence that the Americans would withdraw from this treaty because they “want to put more pressure on Russia and show their bold position.”

“Incorrect from the USA”

According to analysts, Washington may use its initiative to expand the START Treaty as a reason for refusing to extend the current agreement.

In particular, on December 10, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the format of the treaty on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons should be expanded, given the current challenges and the degree of development of weapons. According to the Secretary of State, “creating a system of treaties that ensure strategic stability” is necessary with the participation of China.

“We are talking about developing a system of conditions that provides stability for people in the United States, Russia, people all over the world. And a good strategic dialogue is needed, ”said Pompeo at a press conference with the Russian Foreign Minister in Washington.

Earlier, US Deputy Secretary of Defense John Rood also explained Washington’s reluctance to extend START III in the near future by striving to conclude a broader arms control agreement with the participation of China.

“If the United States agreed to extend the agreement now, it would reduce the possibility of including Russia and China in negotiations to expand the agreement,” he said during a Senate hearing.

According to him, to extend the existing agreement it will not take much effort - it will only be necessary “to agree on a temporary period of validity”.

The United States made such a proposal, although the Chinese Foreign Ministry had previously stated that Beijing was not going to join the talks on nuclear disarmament, which are conducted by Moscow and Washington. This was announced by the director of the Department of Arms Control and Disarmament of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China Fu Tsun.

The idea of ​​involving China in the Russian-American disarmament dialogue was also expressed by Donald Trump himself: “We are dealing with the issue of arms control right now. We work with China, Russia. And in my opinion, both he and she are interested in this work - especially with regard to nuclear weapons. It’s about something like a major agreement in the field of arms control with the participation of Russia, China and, possibly, not only them. ”

  • Capitol Building in Washington
  • Reuters

According to Vladimir Bruter, it is incorrect for the United States to determine the extension of the agreement with measures that relate to third countries.

“The United States might as well propose establishing daily joint space flights, but this has nothing to do with START III. The contract exists in the form in which it was originally. There are only two options: to keep the agreement or not to renew it, then it simply ceases to exist. In this case, China has nothing to do with it - the country does not have as many nuclear warheads as Russia and the United States, ”the expert emphasized.

According to Sergei Sudakov, Washington “will try to create some kind of collective agreement” to include countries with production of medium- and shorter-range missiles, such as Pakistan, France and China. However, these states “have no reason to enter into such an agreement” with the American side - they are aware that the United States will conclude it only on conditions favorable exclusively to the White House.

“Now there is a geopolitical redivision of the world, there are new clusters of power, such as Russia and China. But Washington can’t put up with this and for some reason thinks that the USA is the center of the world. Therefore, it is not clear to the White House that a new treaty in exchange for strategic offensive arms should be beneficial to all its parties. However, the United States believes that only through hegemony can success be achieved, ”the analyst said.

“Seriously hit the security system”

At the same time, experts agree that the termination of the treaty will untie the hands of Washington, which "will be able to constantly increase the pace of militarization."

“The United States believes that it can take on the entire level of international security. They are absolutely indifferent to how even those who potentially consider them their ally and partner will relate to this. They will not pay any attention to it - they ignore the opinion of all parties quite deliberately, ”Vladimir Bruter believes.

In turn, Sergei Sudakov emphasized that the non-renewal of START III would be a serious blow to the global security system.

“If the contract is not renewed, the world becomes more dangerous. Then there will be no agreement that restrains the parties, and, accordingly, there is no roadmap so that the US and Russia do not aim missiles at each other, ”the analyst noted.

In addition, Sudakov notes that the termination of the START Treaty will lead to the erosion of the classic "nuclear club", which officially includes Russia, the USA, China, India, Pakistan, France and the UK.

“Today, the START III treaty is a deterrent for many countries so as not to create a nuclear arsenal or increase it. However, if such an agreement no longer exists, a number of states will seriously think about such options, ”the expert concluded.