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In three months, the French will elect their mayors. Political parties have been preparing municipal elections for a long time, but each with their own strategy. Overview.
It is the first time that the young party of Emmanuel Macron rubs in this local ballot. Without a local presence, En Marche has lowered its ambitions. The party starts from scratch and is forced to rely on its allies and outgoing mayors.
A risky strategy according to Benjamin Morel, lecturer at the University of Paris 2: “ The most likely strategy will be to line up behind those who have a chance of winning and who are presented rather as macron-compatible . But we see that in a party that is not used to partisan discipline, there are dissenting candidates . What should make the presidential party an election to straddle rather than win. "
Facing the new world, the old world hopes to rebuild
After the slap of the Europeans, The Republicans and the Socialist Party want to get their heads out of the water. Between reconquest and question of survival, will the municipal councils be an antidote for the old parties?
" These are elections where you have a bonus for leavers," explains Benjamin Morel. We vote much more for a man than for a political label in municipal elections. So for the Republicans as for the Socialist Party, there is every chance that they will win these elections. And it is not something neutral for them. First of all because it can launch candidates for 2022, there is a lot of talk about Baroin. And then, because, whether it is the center-left or center-right electorate, if this electorate ever begins to believe in a victory in its own colors, there begins to be a risk of cracking in the Macronian electorate. It is dangerous for the majority. And obviously, it's very good for Les Républicains and for the PS. "
The Greens, surprise of the municipal?
Green people dream of confirming their third place in the Europeans. Supported by good polls, Europe Écologie-Les Verts has a game to play, explains Benjamin Morel.
“ It is a party very established in the big symbolic cities where their electorate is over-represented. This electorate rather of CSP + and intellectual professions is mobilized in all the elections. It therefore weighs much more than its demographic weight. In the intermediate elections, you have a large abstention, where the popular electorate does not mobilize while this electorate goes to the polls. So Europe Ecologie-Les Verts has very clearly something to do during these elections. From there to say that it would be for them the prelude to a victory in the presidential or legislative, we are not there yet. EELV should broaden its electoral base, which remains very limited. "
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The National Rally already turned towards the presidential
Marine Le Pen will highlight the standard-bearer towns RN: Hénin-Beaumont and Fréjus. The objective is always the same, according to political scientist Benjamin Morel: to gain credibility.
“ The objective is to show that effective national Gathering management is possible in the field, that RN mayors can be re-elected. And if it goes well at the local level, it can be envisaged tomorrow at the national level. This is how parties like the Northern League in Italy, like the FPE in Austria, won a government credit which gave them a base to be able to participate in governments. "
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Defend your balance sheet and why not win new cities. The National Rally aims for a symbolic victory in Perpignan.
France rebellious, it will clearly overlook this election.
Towards an illegible ballot ?
Between the unlabeled candidates, the right-wing mayors supported by both En Marche and Les Républicains, it will be hard to say who won or lost, confirms Benjamin Morel.
“ Very clearly, we will not have a clear vision. These results will be illegible. We can focus on the number of municipal councilors of this or that party, it will not really give an image of the situation in the country. We will focus on a few symbolic cities. It will make sense from the symbol's point of view, the dynamics of a campaign which then, going through the next local elections, will go to the presidential election. But from the point of view of power relations in the country, it will be much more limited. "
These municipal elections will therefore only be a step towards the presidential election. The regional elections of 2021 will be " the real test ballot ", warns a friend of Emmanuel Macron who sees it as a " rear base to launch out in 2022 ".