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This year, a dismissal trial must open in the United States Senate against Donald Trump, then the Democratic primaries will allow to know the candidate who will face the outgoing president during the presidential election in November. Interview.
Romain Lemaresquier, from the RFI international service, spoke with Jean-Éric Branaa , lecturer at Panthéon-Assas University . This specialist from the United States has just published Joe Biden, the third term of Barack Obama , at VA Éditions.
RFI: What can we expect during this impeachment trial and how will Donald Trump manage this file?
Jean-Éric Branaa : Donald Trump will make his impeachment trial a formidable communication operation for his electoral campaign. The current bet in Washington is that Donald Trump will not be traveling to the Senate for his trial. In reality, we can expect the contrary because he is used to taking us on the wrong foot. It is true that he could afford the pleasure himself of going to face the senators knowing that he risks nothing in this matter since all the Republicans are firmly behind him.
This trial is a double-edged sword on the other hand for the Democratic camp which is in full campaign for the primaries. Isn't the energy deployed to distance them from their constituents in this primary campaign?
Some of them, in addition, instead of being on country roads will be in Washington. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar to name but a few, will be there since they are senators and they will therefore have to attend this recall trial. They must attend in silence, so they will not be able to comment, will not be able to campaign. That leaves the field open to those who are not senators to do so and among them, we have Joe Biden who will have the campaign open for himself.
Is there a risk that the Democratic supporters will move away a little from their candidate?
It is a possibility, it is a real danger. This is why some of them have already started campaigning with acolytes, for example Bernie Sanders who joined the young democratic prodigy Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She is already campaigning alongside him and could replace him quite effectively while he is in Washington.
The Democratic primaries officially begin on February 3 with the first caucus to be held in the state of Iowa. What can we expect knowing that the local polls always give the mayor of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg, in the lead and that this does not reflect the polls at national level ?
These are polls that date from December 2019, so more than a month ago. We are waiting for the very latest polls which should not take long and which may shake things up. And, there are always the three heavyweights that are Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden and who also compete for this first place. So it's really very open in Iowa. Remember that Iowa is only a very limited caucus and that this is not what will make the campaign that will come behind.
Who do you think could face Donald Trump in November and is that person able to win ?
In reality, there are very few candidates who may today be on the verge of confronting Donald Trump. Quite simply, because there are only three emerging and who are three alumni and who are all over 70 years old: Elizabeth Warren is 71 years old, Joe Biden is 78 years old and Bernie Sanders is 79 years old. First, the economy is booming in the United States. Then Donald Trump has a really solid popularity rating and impeachment has seemed to boost his troops. All of this keeps it very open.
Who would you give the winner for next November?
I think that the current division in the United States will prevail over all the other themes and that it will even crush this campaign. This division is to the disadvantage of the outgoing president. If its rating is very solid - around 44-45% -, in reality, if it does not collapse, it stagnates, it cannot rise either and the Democrats should prevail. I think Joe Biden is in the best position because by holding the center, he can speak to Republican voters and he is the only one who can do it this year.