New vehicle tax behind record 2019 - predicted to cause decline in 2020

BIL Sweden's forecast for 2019 was 335,000 newly registered passenger cars in Sweden, a decrease of just over five percent compared to the previous year. But the numbers were surpassed and the year became the third best ever.

In December, records were also broken for the month, with an increase of 108 percent compared to December 2018.

One reason for the record is that the government announced that a new and stricter test method for fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, WLTP, would be introduced in the Bonus malus system, which meant an increase in vehicle tax for most newly registered cars from January 1 this year.

For the same reason, BIL Sweden forecasts a decline in the market in 2020, with a total market forecast of 330,000 new registrations.

- This is a slight decrease due to the economic downturn we see ahead, but also because the Bonus malus system will affect especially the first quarter as many people took the opportunity to register their passenger cars before the turn of the year to avoid the new tax.

The automotive industry is in a major transition, which according to BIL Sweden is driven by three mega trends. The first is about the climate and what the cars should be driving on:

- We change the powertrain and move towards cleaner cars. The electrification has great focus here, but also increased biofuels, says Jessica Alenius.

The second is about safety and automation of the vehicles.

- The purpose is to prevent traffic accidents. Nine out of ten accidents in the world depend on the human factor.

- The third trend is the sharing economy, where we try to make better use of the vehicles. 94 percent of the time, the vehicles are stationary and we need to try to change this.

The biggest focus on electrification was highlighted in last year's figures as the new registration of rechargeable passenger cars, ie electric cars and hybrid cars, increased by 39 percent. The share was 11.4 percent, compared with 8.2 in 2018.

For 2020, a sharp increase is expected, with the forecast for the proportion of rechargeable cars at 30 per cent of total registrations.