"The split in Swedish politics shows no signs of slowing down in 2020"

It may sound like a cliché, but there is hardly any doubt that Swedish politicians are facing major challenges.

• Migration policy has become one of the major issues of conflict in Swedish politics, where the parties must now try to agree on a long-term sustainable policy. Expect great difficulties to come to an agreement.
• Integration policy is identified as a failure of politicians across virtually the entire political field. Here too, there is a big divide about what needs to be done.
• Crime has become increasingly serious with murders, shootings, robberies and explosions, creating insecurity and anxiety among citizens.
• Despite good economic growth for several years, many municipalities have poor finances and are forced to cut down on public service. It generates dissatisfaction and distrust not least in the countryside.
• In health care, queues are long for many treatments, which also contributes to reduced confidence in welfare.

At the same time, the political landscape is more fragmented than for a very long time. The latest government formation also clearly showed how difficult it has become to form a government.

The four parties that now govern the country, the Social Democrats, the Environment Party, the Center Party and the Liberals, have certainly secured government power, but the January agreement has at the same time split the traditional blocs. This has created new contradictions and a whole new political dynamic in Parliament.

This autumn's lack of confidence in the Riksdag around the Swedish Public Employment Service and Labor Minister Eva Nordmark (S) has shown how moving and unpredictable the new political landscape has become.

When the Left Party can agree with the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats about trying to put a Social Democratic minister on a political issue, the behavioral pattern in Swedish politics has changed fundamentally.

Expect that we will see more examples in the future of these unholy alliances. Both the opposition to the right and left of the Riksdag will want to test the limits of how much the government can withstand and at the same time demonstrate its own power in the Riksdag.

Another consequence of the January agreement and the new cooperation in the political center is that the opposition on the right flank is now moving ever closer.

What was politically impossible a year ago is now not only possible, but also desirable. The Christian Democrats and the Moderates say they are fully prepared to start a political collaboration with the Sweden Democrats, despite being dismissed as completely excluded as late as in connection with the formation of the government in January. This development is expected to continue during the term of office, and in the long term, a new political bloc may be emerging.

The moderate position of the moderates in public opinion, combined with the fractured Alliance, also makes the party increasingly reluctant to enter into broad political settlements in Parliament. Now it is opposition and party profiling that applies.

So far, it has been about high-speed trains, energy policy and gang talks, where the Moderates declared that the party does not want to enter into any broad agreements with the government. The M-management claims that the cooperation between S and MP creates a government policy that makes it impossible for broad settlements in the Riksdag. This means that it will be more difficult for the current government to anchor broad and long-term political decisions in Parliament.

Thus, polarization and fragmentation in Swedish politics show no signs of declining in the future - on the contrary. At the same time, the political challenges for Swedish politicians are greater than for a long time.

Parallel to this, voters find that the traditional power parties (S and M) and their partners have difficulty dealing with some of the issues that voters perceive as the most important ones, such as migration, integration and increasingly serious crime. In other ways, the rise of the Swedish Democrats in Swedish opinion cannot be interpreted. As these political issues have become increasingly important to voters, opinion support has increased for SD.

How the current government acts on these issues will thus be decisive not only for the Social Democrats' ability to make the next election, but also for the ability of the Swedish Democrats to continue to grow in public opinion.

At the same time, the new political landscape is a matter of concern for whatever government can take office after the next election.

An increasingly fragmented political system, with internal contradictions in the political issues that are important to the electorate, risks failing to deliver the political decisions that many voters expect. This, combined with increasing polarization in important political issues, risks leading to less confidence in parliamentary parties and the ability of politics to solve the social problems.