Reaction to freezing dialogue: why Kim Jong-un intends to ensure the security of the DPRK by “offensive” methods

At the plenary session of the Central Committee of the DPRK Labor Party, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stated that “in the current situation” it is necessary to ensure the country's security and sovereignty with “offensive” measures. This was reported by the Central Telegraph Agency of Korea (CTAC).

“Having demanded that constructive and offensive measures be taken to fully ensure the sovereignty and security of the country in the current situation, he set tasks in the field of foreign policy, defense industry and the Armed Forces of the DPRK,” the Central Control Commission said in a statement.

Earlier, during a meeting with military leaders, the North Korean leader had already said that the DPRK would take political and military steps to strengthen the country's armed forces.

Recall that in June 2018, the leaders of the DPRK and the United States signed a joint statement in Singapore on the normalization of Korean-American relations. According to the document, in exchange for Pyongyang’s refusal of nuclear weapons and the complete denuclearization of the peninsula, the American side promised to provide “security guarantees” to the DPRK. However, according to the North Korean side, Washington has not taken any steps to confirm these promises, but continues to demand complete nuclear disarmament from the North Korean side.

As a result, in early December, DPRK Permanent Representative to the UN Kim Song issued a statement in which he said that the issue of nuclear disarmament was no longer relevant for negotiations between North Korea and the United States.

“Now we do not need to have lengthy negotiations with the United States, and denuclearization is no longer on the list of topics for discussion,” said Kim Song.

At the same time, the CTAC also published a report on a “very significant test” conducted at the Sohe cosmodrome on December 7th. However, the details were not indicated in the message. It was only said that the result of this test “will have a key impact on the next change in strategic status” of the DPRK. In mid-December, another message appeared about the test conducted by the North Korean side, and again without specifying details.

It is worth noting that shortly before these reports, the Deputy Foreign Minister of North Korea Lee Tae Song stated that Pyongyang has a certain “Christmas present” for the United States.

“The dialogue advertised by the United States is, in fact, just an absurd ruse, designed to force the DPRK to continue negotiations and use them in the interests of the political situation and US elections. The next step is for America, and it depends only on her what gift she will receive for Christmas, ”the diplomat said.

• DPRK leader Kim Jong-un
• Reuters
• © KCNA

In turn, the South Korean agency Ronhap regarded Lee Tae-jong's words as a threat to resuming testing of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles if the US does not put forward new proposals for negotiations with the DPRK before the end of the year.

However, US President Donald Trump suggested that the Christmas present from the DPRK leader would not be a rocket launch, but a “beautiful vase.”

"Stir the White House"

According to St. Petersburg State University associate professor Irina Lantsova, the fact that Kim Jong-un demanded to switch to "offensive" measures is "the result of the United States' inaction and unwillingness to compromise with North Korea."

Recall that in April, Kim Jong-un announced his readiness to wait until the end of 2019 for steps by Washington to change the approach to dialogue with Pyongyang.

“Until the end of the year, I will patiently wait for a change in the position of the United States,” he said in his speech to the deputies in Pyongyang.

Prior to this milestone, the North Korean leader promised to "patiently wait for a bold US decision." What will Pyongyang’s actions be if the relevant measures on the part of the United States are not followed, Kim Jong-un did not specify.

It is worth noting that in June the leaders of the two countries met in the demilitarized zone - on the line of separation of North and South Korea, however, negotiations on denuclearization remained in limbo.

Washington and Pyongyang also tried to come to some agreements in early October - then a delegation from the DPRK led by the main North Korean denuclearization negotiator Kim Myung-Gil came to Sweden to discuss the problem with American colleagues. Shortly before the meeting, Kim Myung-Gil said that he expected a lot from the summit, but negotiations were interrupted. According to the North Korean side, Washington came to negotiations “empty-handed”, not taking into account the requirements of Pyongyang.

Nevertheless, at the end of October, DPRK Foreign Ministry adviser Kim Ge Gwan said that the republic was still hoping for a “wise” decision by the United States before the end of this year.

According to Lantsova, Kim Jong-un’s statements about the need to move to “offensive” measures are “caused primarily by the freezing of negotiations” with Washington on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

“This leads to the fact that North Korea begins to move from a negotiation process to confrontation,” the expert noted in a conversation with RT.

• US President Donald Trump during a meeting with Kim Jong-un in the demilitarized zone
• Reuters
• © Kevin Lamarque

At the same time, Lantsova explained that the United States is the culprit, as Washington "demands the immediate curtailment and complete destruction of the nuclear missile program, without giving Pyongyang any guarantees."

“However, North Korea does not agree to such a scenario,” the analyst recalled.

According to Lantsova, now Pyongyang wants to push the United States to make concessions.

“Pyongyang wants Washington to finally accept the North Korean desire to turn the tide on this issue. DPRK makes it clear that if the American side does not reckon with North Korean interests, the republic will strengthen the development of nuclear potential. The game on raising rates has begun again, related to the aggravation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, ”the expert said.

A similar opinion is shared by Evgeny Kim, a researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East. However, the expert emphasizes that the latest measures of North Korea should not be considered as steps that in any way could actually threaten the United States or neighbors of the DPRK.

“With such statements and a demonstration of weapons, Pyongyang is trying to stir up the White House and motivate Washington to compromise,” the analyst said in an interview with RT.

“Enough endurance and patience”

Experts point to a change in rhetoric on the part of Washington, which, in their opinion, could also push the North Korean leader to statements about "offensive measures."

If earlier Donald Trump told reporters that he had a good relationship with Kim Jong-un, then in December he actually began to threaten the North Korean leader.

“Kim Jong-un is very smart and can lose a lot, lose everything if he acts in a hostile way,” Trump wrote on his Twitter.

Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way. He signed a strong Denuclearization Agreement with me in Singapore. He does not want to void his special relationship with the President of the United States or interfere .... https://t.co/THfOjfB2uE

In addition, the US president recalled that the DPRK leader signed an agreement with him in Singapore, which obliges the republic to carry out denuclearization, "as promised." However, the head of the White House kept silent about the security guarantees promised to Pyongyang.

At the same time, US Presidential Advisor on National Security Robert O'Brien said in an interview with ABC that Washington is ready to retaliate if the DPRK tests an intercontinental ballistic missile.

According to Irina Lantsova, after the statements of the North Korean leader, US rhetoric will be tightened.

“In general, tough rhetoric will begin. Perhaps the military component will be strengthened, for example, the response of aircraft carriers in the region, ”the expert noted.

At the same time, Lantsova emphasizes that there is no talk of military operations on the peninsula.

“The presence of nuclear weapons in North Korea seriously limits the United States in terms of delivering a preventive strike. It should be borne in mind that North Korea’s nuclear missile infrastructure is hidden, the United States has no intelligence on what and where is located. Without them, the operation is dangerous, reckless. However, despite loud statements from one side and the other, the conflict will not go into the armed stage. But in the coming years we will see an aggravation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, ”the analyst said.

In addition, according to Lantsova, the situation may be aggravated by the results of the parliamentary elections in South Korea, which are scheduled for spring 2020.

“If not centrists but rightists come to power, the situation will worsen because these forces are against dialogue with North Korea and for an alliance with the United States,” the expert predicted.

• Intercontinental ballistic missiles during a military parade
• Reuters
• © Damir Sagolj

At the same time, Yevgeny Kim notes, despite a certain escalation of the situation and increased tension between Washington and Pyongyang, next year it cannot be ruled out that the parties will again sit at the negotiating table. At the same time, the expert emphasized that a lot will depend on the domestic political situation in the United States.

“The US election campaign has a negative impact on the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Trump may not decide to meet Pyongyang because of pressure from his opponents, ”Kim said.

At the same time, the expert emphasized that “in any situation”, North Korea “has the patience and patience not to conduct nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles”.

In addition, as noted by Evgeny Kim, the positions of Russia and China are also important in the negotiation process between the United States and North Korea - these two countries, according to the expert, can play a mediating role in it.

“Beijing and Moscow previously presented a roadmap for resolving the Korean nuclear issue. Despite the fact that this initiative was rejected by the USA and South Korea, in fact the events of this year around the situation on the Korean Peninsula developed exactly according to the scenario proposed by Moscow and Beijing: the number of military exercises decreased, the launches of intercontinental missiles stopped, nuclear tests are not carried out, " - concluded the analyst.