Gas of the Mediterranean ... the struggle of power and influence between Turkey and Israel

Muhammad Mohsen Wedd - occupied Jerusalem

Economists and energy experts agree that Turkey's decision to expand its influence in economic waters in the Mediterranean Sea threatens the future of the Israeli pipeline project to transfer natural gas from the Mediterranean to Europe.

However, analysts believe that the decision-makers in Tel Aviv are aware that the implementation of the project and its high costs do not justify any repercussions of the exacerbation of the political crisis with the already strained Ankara.

To prevent the relations between the two countries from being strained, and in an attempt by Tel Aviv to maintain a channel of direct negotiations with Ankara, which signed the agreement to demarcate the maritime borders with Libya, the Israeli government has remained silent about Turkey's moves in the eastern Mediterranean so far.

But despite the official Israeli silence, government officials in Tel Aviv reported that the East Mediterranean gas pipeline project, which is being driven by Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, will start implementation soon.

Steinitz also approved this week a decision allowing Israeli companies to export natural gas from fields off the coast of Israel to Egypt, with the start of export by next January.

The project, which was approved by an agreement signed by the Israeli Minister of Energy with his Greek and Cypriot counterparts and the Italian ambassador to Cyprus in December 2017, includes the construction of a 1,300-kilometer pipeline deep in the Mediterranean from the Israeli Leviathan and Tamar fields of the eastern Mediterranean to southern Greece.

This marine project is added to a 600-km road pipeline towards western Greece, linking an existing pipeline network to European countries and southern Italy, and is expected to transport about 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Silence and move
Israel, which remains silent, is seeking to maintain calm to avoid deteriorating relations with Ankara, as the economic newspaper "Globes" quoted high-ranking government sources in Tel Aviv as saying "Israel has no conflict with Turkey. The gas pipeline project is of strategic importance for Europe, which is Also important to Israel. "

"We have excellent cooperation with Greece, Cyprus and Egypt on the gas pipeline project, and we will be pleased if Turkey wants to participate in it as well," the Israeli government source added.

However, Israeli sources refused to refer to the information indicating the existence of a channel of diplomatic negotiations between Tel Aviv and Ankara about the gas pipeline project, which has the approval and support of European Union countries.

The sources emphasized that "Israel has no desire to confront with Turkey over the economic waters of the eastern Mediterranean", which enhances the validity of information on the negotiations taking place between the two countries behind the scenes, according to the newspaper.

Conflict and escalation
Amiram Barakat, a political economist and commentator in the Globe newspaper, asked whether Israel would be attracted to the emerging regional conflict in the Middle East between Turkey, Greece, Egypt and Cyprus? But he ruled out that Israel would turn the axis of the conflict over the eastern Mediterranean gas, although it would continue to move and fuel the conflict with Turkey behind the scenes in line with its regional interests.

The Israeli researcher believes that Turkey is the one that started the current escalation off Tel Aviv, with Ankara declaring that it annexed large areas of the sea to its exclusive economic zone, which are lands that the international community recognizes as belonging to the influence of Greece and Cyprus.

Barakat confirms that the Turkish move in Israel has been interpreted as aiming to thwart the Israeli project to build an underwater pipeline from gas tanks in Israel, Egypt and Cyprus to European countries until southern Italy, despite the large questions in Tel Aviv about its economic and engineering feasibility.

Influence and power
And in the battle of the clash of influence and power quietly between Israel and Turkey in the Middle East, David Kronbeloth, an energy law expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, says that even without the recent Turkish announcement regarding the agreement to demarcate the sea border with Libya, Tel Aviv cannot extend the gas pipeline and inaugurate Its project without the approval of Turkey, being the coastal country.

Aside from Turkey, the Israeli energy expert says, the gas pipeline project is fiercely opposed by Russia because it wants to ensure that European countries continue to rely on Russian gas.

The energy expert believes that the Israeli interest at this stage requires not to be drawn into the conflict between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the regime in Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, pointing out that sliding the conflict would jeopardize Israeli maritime trade routes.

"Israel finds itself with a thorny and dilemma problem, because the vast majority of Israeli trade, from home and abroad, passes through the Mediterranean, so Israel must carefully study its steps in this conflict," Kronbluth said.

Alliance and intersection
On the background of the struggle for influence in the eastern Mediterranean, independent gas advisor, Gina Cohen, believes that Turkey, which considers itself as a central intersection to transfer energy from Asia to Europe, appears to have lost its position and role in favor of the regime of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Egypt, which strengthens his alliance and relations With Israel in recent years.

Cohen also attributed the fueling of the conflict to the signing of an intergovernmental agreement to export gas from Cyprus and Egypt, the signing of agreements between commercial companies to export gas from the Israeli gas fields "Tamar" and "Leviathan" to Egypt, and the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, with the participation of all countries of the region, Except for Turkey and Lebanon.

For his part, the researcher on Turkish affairs, Professor of Middle Eastern Sciences at Bar Ilan University, the researcher on Turkish affairs, Asa Ofir, believes that Turkey's practices and projects in the last decade refer to the scheme of Ankara controlling and controlling the waters of the Mediterranean Sea, pointing out that the agreement to demarcate the borders with Libya is for Turkey A way to re-establish influence and to seize power cards.

He believes that the Turkish measures are part of a comprehensive plan for Ankara for regional and maritime expansion, in addition to strengthening and growing the Turkish navy, which poses a challenge to Israel and its allies for years to come, saying, "Israel must prepare accordingly and take Turkey's intention seriously."