Beijing (AFP)

Without addressing substantive problems with the United States, the partial trade agreement - once signed - will offer Chinese President Xi Jinping a break as the economy deteriorates and the situation in Hong Kong worries the authorities .

After nearly two years of a fierce trade war with America by Donald Trump, the economic indicators of the second world power are having a hard time in the wings.

"The worst has not yet happened and 2020 promises to be another difficult year," warns economist Ting Lu of investment bank Nomura.

Without hinting at the trade war, China's top leaders this week recognized an awkward situation at a major annual economic meeting in Beijing.

"The sources of turbulence and the risks have increased considerably in the world. We must have a plan (to face it)", ensures a report of this meeting published Thursday by the agency China new.

China's exports suffered their fourth consecutive month of decline in November (-1.1% year-on-year), and this trend is particularly marked for those going to the United States (-23%).

This is a worrying phenomenon because Chinese firms are mainly export oriented.

Beijing and Washington announced a truce in their trade war on Friday.

Donald Trump has given up imposing this Sunday, as initially planned, a new round of customs surcharges on some 160 billion dollars of Chinese goods. And the Trump administration has agreed to gradually reduce existing ones, according to Beijing.

In return, China will not impose additional tariffs on more than 3,000 American products, including auto parts, as it threatened to do.

- "Win time" -

The Chinese will take advantage of this windfall to "strongly" increase their exports to the United States, an essential trading partner, believes Rajiv Biswas of the firm IHS Markit.

The terms of the tentative agreement, however, remain vague. Beijing and Washington have also given no specific date for the final signature of the text.

This allows China to "save time" without resolving the fundamental problems of the dispute with the United States and offers it "a breath of fresh air", notes Larry Ong, analyst for the cabinet SinoInsider.

Beyond the preliminary agreement, Washington demands structural reforms from China: that Beijing will no longer subsidize its public companies, open its public markets to foreign companies and stop forcing them to grant transfers of technologies.

But "the different interpretations of what has been agreed are potential obstacles to the conclusion of the agreement," warns Ting Lu.

In October, the two countries were close to a consensus before a disagreement on tariffs blocked any textualization of the text.

"A deal may have been announced prematurely once again," said Barry Naughton of the University of California.

Beijing has also pledged to buy more American agricultural products - a request dear to Donald Trump - but without advancing any amount.

In addition to the trade front, Chinese and Americans are fighting over the political crisis in Hong Kong, a small autonomous territory in southern China.

- "Fragile agreement" -

To the dismay of Beijing, Donald Trump signed a law in late November to support pro-democracy protesters, whose actions have been almost daily for six months. They denounce the supposed growing influence of the central government in this former British colony returned to China in 1997.

For China as for the United States, "it makes things more complicated to seal a trade agreement", ensures Larry Ong recalling also the rivalry between the two powers in the technological field.

The Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, as well as its compatriot ZTE, are both suspected of spying by Washington for their supposed proximity to the Chinese Communist Party.

In this context, Chinese companies are accelerating their efforts to reduce their dependence on the United States.

"The deal is fragile because there is no quick fix for these problems," said Max Zenglein of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (Merics) in Germany.

To a situation which remains "very volatile", according to Mr. Zenglein, is added the unpredictable personality of the American president who has been blowing hot and cold since the start of the trade war.

For its part, "the Chinese Communist Party is known for not keeping its promises and commitments," assures Mr. Ong.

"The United States will go into standby mode and observe how China complies" with the tentative agreement, predicts Barry Naughton.

And if Beijing fails, "we can expect President Trump to become (the self-proclaimed) man of surcharges +" and tensions will escalate again, warns Ong.

© 2019 AFP