Continuous escalation .. Will negotiations settle the gas conflict in the eastern Mediterranean?

Abdullah Hamed - Cairo

The future of the conflict between Egypt and Turkey over Libya and the Mediterranean gas is shrouded in mystery, in light of the political escalation and the threat of direct military intervention in Libya through both sides.

The level of tension increased when the official page of the Egyptian military spokesman published days and photos of Egyptian naval preparations in the Mediterranean, and the launch of new long-range missiles from submarines of up to 130 kilometers called harpoon.

In return, the Turkish Anatolia Agency published videos of the Turkish Marines, during naval exercises.

These exercises come in light of the escalation of tension between Cairo and Ankara, due to an agreement concluded by Turkey and the Government of National Accord last November 27, stipulating the demarcation of the maritime borders between the two countries, and allowing Ankara to demand rights in large areas of the eastern Mediterranean demanded by other countries, especially Greece.

Despite statements by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who stressed that the agreement does not harm Egypt's interests, Cairo - which supports the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, the opponent of the Accord government - announced its rejection of the agreement.

According to the analysts, the agreement between Egypt, Greece and Cyprus to share gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean Sea has prompted Turkey to coordinate with the Libyan government.

Analysts ruled out that matters would roll into a military war between the two sides, suggesting that the two parties would eventually reach a political solution to the crisis.

A non-Egyptian issue
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that "Turkey and Libya may carry out joint exploration activities for gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Cyprus in an area that includes large gas fields, in accordance with the agreement."

"Southern Cyprus, Egypt, Greece and Israel cannot establish a natural gas transmission line from the areas specified in the agreement with Libya without Turkey's approval, we will not be lenient in this regard, and everything we do is definitely compatible with international maritime law," he added.

The expert on Mediterranean gas affairs, Nael Shafii, commented that the aforementioned pipeline, Israel plans to build "a pure property" for it to transfer its gas from the fields that were "ceded" by Egypt, and will pass through the waters that "ceded" by Egypt.

He continued, "Therefore, the transported gas is not Egyptian, and the pipeline passes into waters that are no longer Egyptian, meaning that it will not pay any returns to Egypt."

Shafei stressed that not completing this pipeline is in the interest of Egypt, calling in a post on his personal Facebook page to give up "nonsense of the idea that Egypt will be the regional center for gas export."

He ruled out that Turkey would continue to escalate because it is trying to obtain a share of the Eastern Mediterranean cake, pointing out that the agreement between Turkey and Libya will enable Egypt to recover 40,000 square kilometers, officially half of which has ceded to Cyprus and effectively ceded the other half to Greece without signing a border demarcation agreement.

Green light
In turn, Director of the International Institute for Political and Strategic Sciences Mamdouh Al-Munir saw that the escalation coincides with an American green light for Turkey, especially after the official American rejection of Haftar's attack on Tripoli and his repeated demand to stop the attack.

This American position is not love in the Al-Wefaq government, according to Munir, but because Haftar began to rely on direct support from Russia, stressing that the Egyptian regime does not have any real pressure cards in Libya, and the Egyptian army busy with trade is not ready to fight battles at all.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Mounir expressed his belief that the issue will not be more than "media skirmishes," and if it evolved, it would be in the context of "limited military skirmishes." This prevents Sisi from confronting Turkey.

In his estimation, the regime practically abandoned Egypt's rights to the Mediterranean gas to demarcate its water borders with Greece and Israel, a defiance in Turkey, and therefore "whoever is excessive in the waters of the Nile will certainly not fight a battle for the gas of the Mediterranean" in his words.

The spokesman interpreted the media escalation as merely a distraction inside with fake battles.

As for the political researcher Ahmed Mawlana, he saw that the Russian rapprochement with Haftar and Cairo prompted America to condemn the Russian intervention in Libya, and to threaten to impose sanctions on Cairo if it went ahead in the Sukhoi 35 aircraft deal.

It was in that stormy atmosphere that the border demarcation agreement was signed between the government of Al-Wefaq and Turkey, which did not face an American objection, and therefore the chances of a regional war in the Mediterranean being "unlikely" at present, and would not be welcomed internationally, in the estimation of Mawlana.

In his talk to Al-Jazeera Net, Maulana ruled out the current escalation into a direct war, but he would contribute to the escalation of "proxy war" by Haftar's forces in order to bring down the government and then the agreement.

But if Haftar fails to do so, Mawlana is more likely to settle the dispute over the riches of the Mediterranean through dialogue and negotiations with international sponsorship.

Political messages
On the other hand, Tariq Fahmy, a professor of political science at Cairo University, stressed that the Turkish president's statements are "political messages" to Egypt, Cyprus and Greece, that he possesses a deterrent force and pressure papers that he may use in the future.

He stated in press statements that the signed agreement gives Erdogan the right to 412 nautical miles between Libya and Turkey, bypassing Cyprus, which is not recognized by the Turkish side.

Fahmy explained that Erdogan's statements and the memorandum signed with the Al-Sarraj government were a "clear violation" of the previously signed agreements relating to the Mediterranean region, stressing that his announcement that the countries seeking to seek them first sought permission from Ankara was "a violation" of reality.

He ruled out that Turkey would consider entering a war against the Mediterranean gas, because it is a member of NATO with a European majority, and this means that if the war is declared against Greece and Cyprus, it threatens to split NATO itself.